Cambridge University Press, 2008. 322 p.
American security and prosperity now depend on Asia. William H. Overholt off ers an iconoclastic
analysis of developments in each major Asian country, Asian inteational relations, and U.S. foreign
policy. Drawing on decades of political and business experience, he argues that obsolete Cold War
structures tie the U.S. increasingly to an otherwise isolated Japan and obscure the reality that a U.S. -Chinese bicondominium now manages most Asian issues. Military priorities risk polarizing the region unnecessarily, weaken the economic relationships that engendered American preeminence, and ironically enhance Chinese infl uence. As a result, despite its Cold War victory, U.S. infl uence in Asia is declining. Overholt disputes that democracy promotion will lead to superior development and peace, and forecasts a new era in which Asian geopolitics could take a drastically diff erent shape. Covering Japan, China, Russia, Central Asia, India, Pakistan, Korea, and Southeast Asia, Overholt off ers invaluable insights for scholars, policymakers, business people, and general readers.
Introduction: Th e Inertia of Foreign Policies.
Cold War Assumptions and Changing Realities .
Th e Truman Doctrine in Asia.
Th e Asian Economic Miracle and Political Consolidation.
Post–Cold War Developments and Architectural Changes.
Regional Trends.
Outbreaks of Nationalism.
Th e New Phase of the Asian Economic Miracle.
Th e Geopolitics of the New Geoeconomics.
Asia’s Big Powers: Japan and China.
Japan.
Th e Rise and Fall of Japan’s Economic Supremacy in Asia.
Post-Bust Politics.
Post-Bust Foreign Policy.
Th e Transformation of Military Posture.
Nationalism and Japan’s Diplomatic Isolation.
Cultural Uniqueness and Foreign Policy.
What the Future Could Bring.
China .
Weste Political Images and Chinese Reality.
Political Experiments.
Economic Dynamism and Political Influence.
China as a Regional Leader.
Th e Rise of China and the Rise of Japan.
Th e China-Japan Relationship.
Smaller Places, Decisive Pivots: Taiwan, Korea, Southeast Asia.
Taiwan.
Korea.
Southeast Asia.
Th e Aspiring Power and Its Near Abroad: India and South Asia.
India.
Pakistan.
Th e South Asian Subcontinent .
Russia and Its Near Abroad.
Russia: Canada with Testosterone.
Russia and China.
Central Asia.
Th e United States and the New Asia.
Adapting to China’s Rise.
Cold War Images and Post–Cold War Policy Anomalies.
Changing Priorities: Th e Perils of Dominant Military Priorities.
Globalization and the Downgrading of Economic Priorities.
Th e Costs and Benefi ts of Promoting Democracy.
Th e Need for an Attitude Transplant.
Scenarios for the Future.
Scenario 1: Business as Usual.
Scenario 2: Cold War II.
Scenario 3: Reversal of Partnerships.
Scenario 4: U.S. Disengagement.
Scenario 5: Revitalized, Peaceful, Balanced Globalization.
Scenario 6: Crisis of Globalization.
Surprises.
China Sticks to Globalization Despite Globalization Collapsing Elsewhere.
Failure of Chinese or Indian Reform.
Emergence of an Aggressive India.
Emergence of an Aggressive China.
Local Wars of Global Consequence.
American security and prosperity now depend on Asia. William H. Overholt off ers an iconoclastic
analysis of developments in each major Asian country, Asian inteational relations, and U.S. foreign
policy. Drawing on decades of political and business experience, he argues that obsolete Cold War
structures tie the U.S. increasingly to an otherwise isolated Japan and obscure the reality that a U.S. -Chinese bicondominium now manages most Asian issues. Military priorities risk polarizing the region unnecessarily, weaken the economic relationships that engendered American preeminence, and ironically enhance Chinese infl uence. As a result, despite its Cold War victory, U.S. infl uence in Asia is declining. Overholt disputes that democracy promotion will lead to superior development and peace, and forecasts a new era in which Asian geopolitics could take a drastically diff erent shape. Covering Japan, China, Russia, Central Asia, India, Pakistan, Korea, and Southeast Asia, Overholt off ers invaluable insights for scholars, policymakers, business people, and general readers.
Introduction: Th e Inertia of Foreign Policies.
Cold War Assumptions and Changing Realities .
Th e Truman Doctrine in Asia.
Th e Asian Economic Miracle and Political Consolidation.
Post–Cold War Developments and Architectural Changes.
Regional Trends.
Outbreaks of Nationalism.
Th e New Phase of the Asian Economic Miracle.
Th e Geopolitics of the New Geoeconomics.
Asia’s Big Powers: Japan and China.
Japan.
Th e Rise and Fall of Japan’s Economic Supremacy in Asia.
Post-Bust Politics.
Post-Bust Foreign Policy.
Th e Transformation of Military Posture.
Nationalism and Japan’s Diplomatic Isolation.
Cultural Uniqueness and Foreign Policy.
What the Future Could Bring.
China .
Weste Political Images and Chinese Reality.
Political Experiments.
Economic Dynamism and Political Influence.
China as a Regional Leader.
Th e Rise of China and the Rise of Japan.
Th e China-Japan Relationship.
Smaller Places, Decisive Pivots: Taiwan, Korea, Southeast Asia.
Taiwan.
Korea.
Southeast Asia.
Th e Aspiring Power and Its Near Abroad: India and South Asia.
India.
Pakistan.
Th e South Asian Subcontinent .
Russia and Its Near Abroad.
Russia: Canada with Testosterone.
Russia and China.
Central Asia.
Th e United States and the New Asia.
Adapting to China’s Rise.
Cold War Images and Post–Cold War Policy Anomalies.
Changing Priorities: Th e Perils of Dominant Military Priorities.
Globalization and the Downgrading of Economic Priorities.
Th e Costs and Benefi ts of Promoting Democracy.
Th e Need for an Attitude Transplant.
Scenarios for the Future.
Scenario 1: Business as Usual.
Scenario 2: Cold War II.
Scenario 3: Reversal of Partnerships.
Scenario 4: U.S. Disengagement.
Scenario 5: Revitalized, Peaceful, Balanced Globalization.
Scenario 6: Crisis of Globalization.
Surprises.
China Sticks to Globalization Despite Globalization Collapsing Elsewhere.
Failure of Chinese or Indian Reform.
Emergence of an Aggressive India.
Emergence of an Aggressive China.
Local Wars of Global Consequence.