growth scenarios 20–1, 20
patterns 63–7, 66, 209
seasonal variation 59, 60
UK 162–3, 163, 203
variability 63–7, 66, 157, 162
demand prediction error see sched-
uling error
demand-side management 41, 151,
152–5, 178, 204–5, 208, 209
space heating 160–1, 160, 161
Denmark 6, 48, 50, 82, 87, 96
wind output variability 5, 6, 6,
36–8, 37
diesel generators 144, 145, 146
testing off load 147–8
and triad periods 146–7
UK emergency capacity 149
Wessex Water 143, 146–7, 148
dispatchable capacity 56, 57, 67
district heating see CHP
diurnal demand variations 122,
123, 130–1, 152
domestic demand 33, 160–1, 160,
161, 162
domestic storage 163–4, 204
dwellings 160–1, 160, 161, 162
Dynamic Demand 205–7, 206
EETS (Energy Efficient Trading
Scheme) 205
electric heating 152, 154
electric vehicles 158, 159, 162,
164, 207
electricity, unit cost 173, 174, 178,
179
energy 1, 22, 79
energy efficiency 151, 158, 159,
165, 167, 178
dwellings 160–1, 160, 161, 162
Energy Efficient Trading Scheme
see EETS
energy planning 159
energy security 158, 166, 178
EST (Energy Space Time) model
170–7, 171, 172, 173, 175, 176,
177
EU (European Union) 6, 124
Europe
offshore potential 181, 182
Supergrid 194–8, 194, 195,
196–8
weather patterns 181, 182, 184
wind power costs 193, 193
firm capacity 41–2, 166, 167–8
flexibility 152, 153, 205–6, 206,
208
forced outages 13, 32, 36, 122,
132, 145, 152
forecast accuracy 107–10, 108,
109, 113, 114, 117–18
forecast error 96, 97, 105–7, 113,
114, 119
Germany 105–10, 107, 108,
109
WPMS 110–16, 113, 114, 115
forecast horizon 97, 98, 101–2,
102, 103
forecasting
fluctuations in output 75–6
uncertainty in 117, 118
weather 46–7, 152, 167
wind 46–7, 52, 146
see also wind power forecasting
fossil fuel generating plants 122,
136–40, 139, 159
see also CCGTs; coal-fired
steam plants; IGCCs
fossil fuels 157–8, 162, 165, 178
frequency 12, 36, 130–2, 131, 145,
203, 205
Frequency Service 143–4, 145, 146
gas 46, 46, 51, 56, 162, 166
gate closure 75–6, 82, 102
geographical dispersion 58, 87, 89,
162, 184, 203
offshore wind 187–8, 188, 189
smoothing effect 36, 37, 75, 77
wind plant 43, 58, 184, 203
Germany 6, 87, 95–6, 96, 117
balancing costs 49–50
capacity factor 50, 81, 87
forecast error 105–10, 107,
Index 213
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