Publisher: Govement Printing Office; First Edition edition
(November 1999).
Language: English.
Isbn-10: 0160590353.
Isbn-13: 978-1929667000.
Аннотация: Книга обсуждает принципы аналитического мышления, в том числе и в условиях ограниченной информации. Содержание:
Author's Preface.
Foreword by Douglas MacEachin.
Introduction by Jack Davis.
Our mental machinery.
Thinking About Thinking.
Perception: Why Can't We See What Is There to Be Seen?
Memory: How Do We Remember What We Know?
Tools for thinking
Strategies for Analytical Judgment: Transcending the Limits of Incomplete Information.
Do You Really Need More Information?
Keeping an Open Mind.
Structuring Analytical Problems.
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses.
Cognitive biases.
What Are Cognitive Biases?
Biases in Evaluation of Evidence.
Biases in Perception of Cause and Effect.
Biases in Estimating Probabilities.
Hindsight Biases in Evaluation of Intelligence Reporting.
Conclusions.
Improving Intelligence Analysis.
Language: English.
Isbn-10: 0160590353.
Isbn-13: 978-1929667000.
Аннотация: Книга обсуждает принципы аналитического мышления, в том числе и в условиях ограниченной информации. Содержание:
Author's Preface.
Foreword by Douglas MacEachin.
Introduction by Jack Davis.
Our mental machinery.
Thinking About Thinking.
Perception: Why Can't We See What Is There to Be Seen?
Memory: How Do We Remember What We Know?
Tools for thinking
Strategies for Analytical Judgment: Transcending the Limits of Incomplete Information.
Do You Really Need More Information?
Keeping an Open Mind.
Structuring Analytical Problems.
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses.
Cognitive biases.
What Are Cognitive Biases?
Biases in Evaluation of Evidence.
Biases in Perception of Cause and Effect.
Biases in Estimating Probabilities.
Hindsight Biases in Evaluation of Intelligence Reporting.
Conclusions.
Improving Intelligence Analysis.