Искусственный интеллект
Информатика и вычислительная техника
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Pezzulo G., Butz M.V., Castelfranchi C., Falcone R. (eds.) The Challenge of Anticipation. A Unifying Framework for the Analysis and Design of Artificial Cognitive Systems
Издательство Springer, 2008, -294 pp.

The general idea that brains anticipate the future, that they engage in prediction, and that one means of doing this is through some sort of inner model that can be run offline, has a long history. Some version of the idea was common to Aristotle, as well as to many medieval scholastics, to Leibniz and Hume, and in more recent times, to Kenneth Craik and Philip Johnson-Laird. One reason that this general idea recurs continually is that this is the kind of picture that introspection paints. When we are engaged in tasks it seems that we form images that are predictions, or anticipations, and that these images are isomorphic to what they represent.
But as much as the general idea recurs, opposition to it also recurs. The idea has never been widely accepted, or uncontroversial among psychologists, cognitive scientists and neuroscientists. The main reason has been that science cannot be satisfied with metaphors and introspection. In order to gain acceptance, an idea needs to be formulated clearly enough so that it can be used to construct testable hypotheses whose results will clearly support or cast doubt upon the hypothesis. Next, those ideas that are formulable in one or another sort of symbolism or notation are capable of being modeled, and modeling is a huge part of cognitive neuroscience. If an idea cannot be clearly modeled, then there are limits to how widely it can be tested and accepted by a cognitive neuroscience community. And finally, ideally, the idea will be articulated and modeled in such a way that it is not a complete mystery how it could be implemented by the brain. Though the idea that the brain models and predicts and anticipates is supported by introspection and a long history of hypotheses, it has largely failed on these latter three counts – especially compared with various theoretical competitors. And this is why the extent to which it has been embraced by cognitive science and neuroscience has been limited.
But there is good news. Mathematical tools from a number of areas, including mode control theory and signal processing, are capable of allowing for very precise mathematical formulations of the basic idea, as well as many specific versions. This allows for the ideas not only to be precisely formulated, but also to be modeled and compared to human behavioral data. And given a number of schemes for implementing these kinds of mathematical models in neural systems, it is possible to see these models as being implemented in the brain. The qualitative idea that the brain models the world is finally being clarified and quantified.
But we are still in the early stages of this process. While there are many proposals and theories that are beginning to take shape, there have been few sustained treatments of the topic that attempt to develop them in detailed and consistent ways. Rather, the applications have largely been piecemeal. In this regard the present volume represents a significant advance in the field. It offers a sustained treatment of various aspects of the general hypothesis, not only in terms of being conceptually clear and consistent, but also in terms of presenting a wide range of particular applications that illustrate the conceptual machinery in action.
It would be an overstatement to say that the idea that the brain is a modeler and predictor is revolutionary, or that the current swell in theoretical interest in the idea represents the initial stages of a revolution in cognitive neuroscience. But while talk of revolution may be overstatement, it cannot be denied that this approach to understanding brain function is beginning to take on an importance comparable to that of traditional artificial intelligence approaches and connectionist modeling approaches. The clarity, detail and quality of the ideas presented in this volume, coupled with the growing importance of this general approach,make this volume a critical contribution to our understanding of brain function, and should be read by anyone with a serious interest in understanding how the brain manages to support cognitive functions.

Part I Theory
Introduction: Anticipation in Natural and Artificial Cognition
The Anticipatory Approach: Definitions and Taxonomies
Benefits of Anticipations in Cognitive Agents
Part II Models, Architectures, and Applications
Anticipation in Attention
Anticipatory, Goal-Directed Behavior
Anticipation and Believability
Anticipation and Emotions for Goal Directed Agents
A Reinforcement-LeaingModel of Top-Down Attention Based on a Potential-Action Map
Anticipation by Analogy
Anticipation in Coordination
Endowing Artificial Systems with Anticipatory Capabilities: Success Cases
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