
12.1. MC Popularity 387
12.1.2 From Needles to Bombs
Early records of random sampling to solve quantitative problems can be found
in the 18th and 19th centuries with needle throwing experiments to calculate ge-
ometrical probabilities (George Louis Leclerc, a.k.a. Comte de Buffon, 1777)
1
or to determine π (Simon de Laplace
1
). In 1901, Lord Kelvin also described an
important application to the evaluation of time integrals in the kinetic theory of
gases. Yet a novel class of MC methods (using Markov chains) provides the mod-
ern roots of MC theory, and is largely credited to the Los Alamos pioneers (Von
Neumann, Fermi, Ulam, Metropolis, Teller, and others).
These brilliant scholars studied properties of the newly discovered neutron par-
ticles in the middle of the 20th century by formulating mathematical problems in
terms of probability and solving analogues by stochastic sampling. Their work led
to a surge of publications in the late 1940s and early 1950s on solving problems
in statistical mechanics, radiation transport, and other fields by carefully-designed
sampling experiments.
Most notable among these works was the famous algorithm of Metropolis et al.
in 1953 [856]. With the rapid growth of computer speed and the development of
many techniques to improve sampling, reduce errors, and enhance efficiency, MC
methods have become a powerful utility in many areas of science and engineering.
12.1.3 Chapter Overview
In this chapter, only the most elementary aspects of MC simulations are described,
including the generation of uniform and normal random variables, basic probabil-
ity theory background (see also Box 12.1), and the Metropolis algorithm (due also
to A.W. Rosenbluth, M.N. Rosenbluth, A.H. Teller and E. Teller).
Such methods can be used in molecular simulations to generate efficiently con-
formational ensembles that obey Boltzmann statistics, that is, the probability of
a configuration X with energy E(X) is proportional to exp(−E(X)/k
B
T) (k
B
is Boltzmann’s constant and T is the temperature). From such ensembles, var-
ious geometric and energetic means can be estimated. Low-energy regions can
also be identified by decreasing the temperature in the sampling protocol (this is
termed “simulated annealing”). Method extensions that are of particular interest to
the biomolecular community, such as biased MC, hybrid MC, parallel tempering
(also called replica-exchange method, REM), and other variants are also men-
tioned. The REM method has been particularly effective in the MD incarnation
termed Replica Exchange MD (REMD); see MD chapters.
1
Buffon used a Monte Carlo integration procedure to solve the following problem: a needle of
length L is thrown at a horizontal plane ruled with parallel straight lines separated by d>L;whatis
the probability that the needle will intersect one of these lines? Buffon derived the probability as an
integral and attempted an experimental verification by throwing the needle many times and observing
the fraction of needle/line intersections. It was Laplace who in the early 1800s generalized Buffon’s
probability problem and recognized it as a method for calculating π.