220 CHAPTER 5. EPIDEMICS, IMAGES AND MONEY
5.5.2 Application
We will focus on a particular option contract called an American put option.
This option contract obligates the writer of the contract to buy an underlying
asset from the holder of the contract at a particular price, called the exercise
or strike price,
H. This must be done within a given time, called an expiration
date,
W . The holder of the option contract may or may not sell the underlying
asset whose market value,
V, will vary with time. The value of the American
put option contract to the holder will vary with time, w> and V. If V gets large
or if w gets close to W , then the value of the American put option contract,
S (V> w), will decrease. On the other hand, if V gets small, then the value of the
American put option contract will increase towards the exercise price, that is,
S (V> w) will approach H as V goes to zero. If time exceeds expiration date, then
the American put option will be worthless, that is,
S (V> w) = 0 for w A W=
The objective is to determine the value of the American put option contract
as a function of
V, w and the other parameters H, W , u ( the interest rate) and
(the market volatility), which will be described later. In particular, the holder
of the contract would like to know when is the "best" time to exercise the
American put option contract. If the market value of the underlying contract
is well above the exercise price, then the holder may want to sell on the open
market and not to the writer of the American put option contract. If the market
price of the underlying asset continues to fall below the exercise price, then at
some "point" the holder will want to sell to the writer of the contract for the
larger exercise price. Since the exercise price is fixed, the holder will sell as
soon as this "point" is reached so that the money can be used for additional
investment. This "point" refers to a particular market value V = V
i
(w)> which
is also unknown and is called the optimal exercise price.
The writers and the holders of American put option contracts are motivated
to enter into such contracts by speculation of the future value of the underlying
asset and by the need to minimize risk to a portfolio of investments. If an
investor feels a particular asset has an under-valued market price, then entering
into American put option contracts has a p ossible value if the speculation is
that the market value of the underlying asset may increase. However, if an
investor feels the underlying asset has an over-priced market value, then the
investor may speculate that the underlying asset will decrease in value and may
be tempted to become holder of an American put option contract.
The need to minimize risk in a portfolio is also very important. For example,
suppose a portfolio has a number of investments in one sector of the economy.
If this sector expands, then the portfolio increases in value. If this sector con-
tracts, then this could cause some significant loss in value of the portfolio. If
the investor becomes a holder of American put option contracts with some of
the portfolio’s assets as underlying assets, then as the market values of the
assets decrease, the value of the American put option will increase. A proper
distribution of underlying investments and option contracts can minimize risk
to a portfolio.
© 2004 by Chapman & Hall/CRC