
Environmental Encyclopedia 3
Environmental refugees
coupled with the rapid soil erosion, overcrowding, and un-
equal social distribution of resources experienced at this time,
environmental scarcity resulted. Other environmental influ-
ences such as climate change and natural disasters can greatly
compound the problems related to scarcity. Those countries
which are especially vulnerable to these other influences
are those which are already experiencing the precursors to
scarcity, for example, highly populated countries such as
Egypt and Bangladesh. On Haiti, per capita grain produc-
tion is half of what it was only 40 years ago and residents
only get about 80% of their minimum nutritional needs.
Environmental problems place an added burden on a situa-
tion that is already under pressure. When this combination
occurs in societies without strong social ties or political and
economic stability, many times the people within the popula-
tion have no choice but to relocate.
Environmental refugees tend to come from rural areas
and developing countries--those most vulnerable to the in-
fluences of scarcity, climate change, and natural disasters.
According to the
Centers for Disease Control and Preven-
tion
, since the early 1960s most emergencies involving refu-
gees have taken place in these
less developed countries
where resources are inadequate to support the population
during times of need. In 1995, CDC directed 45 relief
missions to developing countries such as Angola, Bosnia,
Haiti, and Sierra Leone.
The number of displaced people is rising worldwide.
Of these, the number forced to migrate because of economic
and environmental conditions is growing more rapidly than
refugees from political strife. According to Dr. Norman
Myers at the University of Oxford, there are 25 million
environmental refugees today, compared with 20 million
officially recognized refugees migrating due to political, reli-
gious, or ethical problems. It has been predicted that by the
year 2010, this number could rise to 50 million. The number
of migrants seeking environmental refuge is grossly underes-
timated because many do not actually cross borders but
are forced to wander within their own country. As global
warming causes major climate changes, these numbers could
increase even more. Climate change alone may displace 150
million more people by the middle of the next century. Not
only would a global climate change increase the number of
refugees, it could have a negative impact on agricultural
production which would seriously limit the amount of food
surpluses available to help displaced people.
Although approximately three out of every five refu-
gees are fleeing from environmental hardships, this group
of refugees is not legally recognized. According to the 1951
Convention on the Status of Refugees as modified by the
1967 Protocol, a legal refugee is a person who escapes a
country and cannot re-enter due to fear of persecution for
reasons of race, religion, nationality, social affiliation, or
511
political opinion. This definition requires both the element
of persecution as well as cross-border
migration
. Because
of these two requirements, states are not legally compelled
to recognize environmental refugees; as mentioned above,
many of these refugees never leave their own country, and
it is unreasonable to expect them to prove fear of persecution.
Environmental refugees are often forced to enter a country
illegally since they cannot be granted protection or asylum.
Many of the Mexican immigrants who enter the United
States are escaping the sterile, unproductive land they have
been living on. Over 60% of the land in Mexico is degraded,
with soil erosion contributing to over 494,000 acres (200,000
ha) more land being rendered unproductive every year. Many
of the people considered to be economic migrants are actually
environmental refugees. Those that are recognized as politi-
cal refugees often must live in overcrowded refugee camps
which are no more prepared to sustain the population than
the land they are escaping from. Two thousand Somali refu-
gees forced to live in such camps on the border of Kenya
were displaced once more when
flooding
in 1994 ended a
long drought but destroyed relief food. Many environmental
refugees never resettle and must live the rest of their lives
migrating from place to place, looking for land that can
sustain them.
Researchers are currently working on ways to predict
where the next large migrations will come from and how to
prevent them from occurring. Predictive models are ex-
tremely difficult to produce because of the interaction be-
tween the socioeconomic status of the people and the envi-
ronmental influences on the land. Stuart Liederman, an
environmental scientist at the University of New Hampshire,
is developing a model which will predict which areas are at
risk of producing environmental refugees. This model is a
mathematical formula which could be used with any popula-
tion. One side of the equation combines the rate of environ-
mental decay, the amount of time over which this deteriora-
tion will take place, and the susceptibility of the people and
the
environment
. The other side of the equation combines
the restoration rate, the time it would take to reestablish the
environment, and the potential for recovery of the people
and the land. These predictions will allow for preventive
measures to be taken, for preparations to be made for future
refugees, and for restoring the devastated homelands of past
migrants. Creation of a working model may also help con-
vince policymakers that those escaping unlivable environ-
mental conditions need to be legally recognized as refugees.
Until environmental refugees are granted legal status,
there will be no protection or compensation granted these
individuals. The most effective way to deal with the growing
number of displaced persons is to concentrate on the reasons
they are being forced to leave their homelands. The increas-
ing number of people forced to leave their homeland due