marked socioeconomic and material slowdown during the mid-sixth
century. Such factors include endemic warfare, famine, forced popula-
tion movement (a consequence of war), and recurring episodes of the
bubonic plague, which had broken out in Egypt in 541.
41
In common
with Kennedy, Liebeschuetz and others have also invoked the plague as
a key cause of decline.
42
In support, these authors look to the ancient
historical sources, such as Evagrius, Procopius, or the second book of
John of Ephesus’ History, preserved in the later Chronicle of Zuqnīn,
which often describe mass mortality, human misery, and farms and
animals left unattended owing to the deaths of farmers and farm
workers.
43
Conrad, too, has suggested that the effects of the plague
were widespread and were a contributing factor to the ease of the
seventh-century Muslim invasions, and thus an integral component
of long-term change in the region.
44
Finally, proponents of the decline
thesis are not, of course, confined to the Near East.
45
The debate continues, however, over the nature of any decline, the
severity of the plague, and the difficulties involved in accurately
41
H. Kennedy, ‘Justinianic plague in Syria and the archaeological evidence’,in
L. K. Little (ed.), Plague and the End of Antiquity: The Pandemic of 541–750 (Cambridge,
2007), 87–98, arguing against the more optimistic view of Foss, ‘Syria in transition’,
259–60, and restating the decline thesis first aired in H. Kennedy, ‘From polis to
madina: urban change in late antique and Early Islamic Syria’, Past and Present, 106
(1985), 3–27, as well as id., ‘The last century of Byzantine Syria: a reinterpretation’ ,
Byzantinische Forschungen, 10 (1985), 141–84; recently, M. Meier, Das andere
Zei talter Justinians. Kontingenzerfahrung und Kont ingenzbewältigu ng im 6. Jahr-
hunder t n. Chr. (Göttingen, 2003), 325–41, 423–6, has also taken a ‘catastrophist’
line, emphasising the impact of the plague .
42
J. H. W. G. Liebeschuetz, The Decline and Fall of the Roman City (Oxford, 2001),
esp. 52–4, 409–10; H. Kennedy and Liebeschuetz, ‘Antioch and the villages of northern
Syria in the fifth and sixth centuries
A.D.: trends and problems’, Nottingham Medieval
Studies, 32 (1988), 65–90, esp. 90 n. 144. See the collected articles in Little (ed.), Plague and
the End of Antiquity,aswellastherecentworkofD.Ch.Stathakopoulos,Famine and
Pestilence in the Late Roman and Early Byzantine Empire (Aldershot, 2004), esp. 140–54.
43
e.g. Evag. HE 4.29, Proc. BP 2.22.1–39. For the second book of John of Ephesus’
HE see the third part of the Chronicle of Zuqnīn (¼ Chronicle of Dionysius of Tel-
Mah
˙
rē). Citations here are to Chabot’s edition. Parts 3 and 4 have also recently been
translated as The Chronicle of Zuqnīn, Parts III and IV,
A.D. 448–775 (trans. with notes
and introduction by A. Harrak) (Toronto, 1999), and critically assessed by Wita-
kowski, The Syriac Chronicle of Pseudo-Dionysius of Tel-Mah
˙
rē.
44
L. Conrad, ‘The plague in Bilād al-Shām in pre-Islamic times’, in M. A. Bakhit
and M. Asfour (eds.), Proceedings of the Symposium on Bilād al-Shām during the
Byzantine Period, Muharram 9–13 1040.
A.H./November 15–19 1983, 2 vols (Amman,
1986), ii. 143–63, at 156–7.
45
e.g. B. Ward-Perkins, The Fall of Rome and the End of Civilization (Oxford,
2005), for a recent strong statement.
Jafnids, Nas
rids, and Late Antiquity 187