The Logic of Experimental Design 
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Regression to the Mean.  Statistical regression occurs when individuals are 
selected for a study because their scores on some measure were extreme—
either extremely high or extremely low. If we were studying students who 
scored in the top 10% on the SAT and we retested them on the SAT, then we 
would expect them to do well again. Not all students, however, would score 
as well as they did originally because of statistical regression, often referred 
to as regression to the mean—a threat to internal validity in which extreme 
scores, upon retesting, tend to be less extreme, moving toward the mean. In 
other words, some of the students did well the first time due to chance or 
luck. What is going to happen when they take the test a second time? They 
will not be as lucky, and their scores will regress toward the mean.
Regression to the mean occurs in many situations other than research 
studies. Many people think that a hex is associated with being on the cover 
of  Sports Illustrated and that an athlete’s performance will decline after 
appearing on the cover. This can be explained by regression to the mean. 
Athletes most likely appear on the cover of Sports Illustrated after a very suc-
cessful season or at the peak of their careers. What is most likely to happen 
after athletes have been performing exceptionally well over a period of time? 
They are likely to regress toward the mean and perform in a more average 
manner (Cozby, 2001). In a research study, having an equivalent control 
group of participants with extreme scores will indicate whether changes in 
the dependent measure are due to regression to the mean or to the effects of 
the independent variable.
Instrumentation.  An  instrumentation effect occurs when the measur-
ing device is faulty. Problems of consistency in measuring the dependent 
variable are most likely to occur when the measuring instrument is a human 
observer. The observer may become better at taking measures during the 
course of the study, or may become fatigued with taking measures. If the 
measures taken during the study are not taken consistently, then any change 
in the dependent variable may be due to these measurement changes and 
not to the independent variable. Once again, having a control group of 
equivalent participants will help to identify this confound.
Mortality or Attrition.    Most research studies encounter a certain amount 
of mortality or attrition (dropout). Most of the time, the attrition is equal 
across experimental and control groups. It is of concern to researchers, 
however, when attrition is not equal across the groups. Assume that we 
begin a study with two equivalent groups of participants. If more partici-
pants leave one group than the other, then the two groups of participants 
are most likely no longer equivalent, meaning that comparisons cannot 
be made between the groups. Why might we have differential attrition 
between the groups? Imagine we are conducting a study to test the effects 
of a program aimed at reducing smoking. We randomly select a group of 
smokers and then randomly assign half to the control group and half to the 
experimental group. The experimental group participates in our program 
to reduce smoking, but the heaviest smokers just cannot take the demands 
of the program and quit the program. When we take a posttest measure 
regression to the mean
A threat to internal validity in 
which extreme scores, upon re-
testing, tend to be less extreme, 
moving toward the mean.
regression to the mean
A threat to internal validity in 
which extreme scores, upon re-
testing, tend to be less extreme, 
moving toward the mean.
instrumentation effect
A threat to internal validity in 
which changes in the dependent 
variable may be due to changes 
in the measuring device.
instrumentation effect
A threat to internal validity in 
which changes in the dependent 
variable may be due to changes 
in the measuring device.
mortality (attrition)
A threat to internal validity in 
which differential dropout rates 
may be obser
ved in the ex-
perimental and control groups, 
leading to inequality between 
the groups.
mortality (attrition)
A threat to internal validity in 
which differential dropout rates 
may be observed in the ex-
perimental and control groups, 
leading to inequality between 
the groups.
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