other.
14
The change from Britain having a veto, at least in principle, to
only having the right to be consulted was indicative of the extent to
which Britain had been marginalised in Washington’s world view.
The atomic bomb was rightly regarded as a fearful weapon. The
United States Strategic Bombing Survey estimated the casualties at
Hiroshima at between 70,000 and 80,000 dead and about as many
injured. Comparable casualties had been inflicted by conventional
weapons: about 84,000 people were killed and 41,000 wounde d in the
Tokyo fire-raid of 9–10 March 1945, when fires started by 334 USAAF
bombers using incendiary bombs were spread by a strong wind.
15
However, the atomic bomb enabled one aircraft to wreak destruction on
a scale that had previously required hundreds, and there were also the
uncertain after-effects of radiation. A British mission of scientists sent to
Japan to study the effects of the atomic bomb concluded that the stan-
dard figure in British conditions would be approximately 50,000 dead.
16
In July 1946 the Joint Technical Warfare Committee of the Chiefs of
Staff estimated that bet ween 30 and 120 atomic bombs, accurately tar-
geted, woul d knock out the United Kingdom.
17
In June 1952 the Chief
Scientific Officer at the Home Office advised that, outside the area of
complete devastation within half to three-quarters of a mile from where
an atomic bomb fell, it should be possible to take civil defence measures
to deal with fires and to rescue trapped casualties, and that shelters could
provide protection for the public.
18
However, the Chiefs of Staff Global
Strategy paper advised the same month that, given that there was no
effective defence against atomic attack, civil defence should be restricted
to preparations needed to carry out essential activities in London and the
chief ports during an attack, and that there should be no policy of
building shelters for the general population.
19
The United States’ monopoly of the atomic bomb did not last for
long. Aided by information gained by the naturalised British scientist,
Klaus Fuchs, who had worked on the Manhattan Project, the Soviets
tested their first atomic bomb in August 1949, earlier than expec ted.
20
14
Gowing, Independence and Deterrence, vol. I, pp. 6–7, 21, 65–7, 75–88, 92–111. The
declaration of 15 November and the Groves–Anderson memorandum are reproduced
in DBPO, series I, vol. II (1985), pp. 618–20, 630–2.
15
Craven and Cate (eds.), Army Air Forces in World War II, vol. V, pp. 614–17, 722.
16
British Mission to Japan, The Effects of the Atomic Bombs at Hiroshima and Nagasaki
(London: HMSO, 1946).
17
Gowing, Independence and Deterrence, vol. I, pp. 174–5.
18
David Maxwell Fyfe (home secretary) to Prime Minister, 4 June 1952, and enclosure,
PREM 11/294, TNA.
19
D (52) 26, para. 105, CAB 131/12, TNA.
20
David Holloway, Stalin and the Bomb: The Soviet Union and Atomic Energy (New Haven:
Yale University Press, 1994), pp. 83, 104–8, 138, 222–3. British estimates of the date
The impacts of the atomic bomb and the Cold War 235