Renewable Energy World - magazine - 5/6-2011
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23
WIND TECHNOLOGY SUPPLEMENT - MAY 2011
systems, for resource assessment, and for measuring the wind shear
over the rotor area.
UpWind demonstrated the need to take the wind shear into account
for large rotors (WP6 and WP2). The 20 MW rotor is so large that the
wind inow needs to be treated as an heterogeneous phenomenon,
in contrast to more typical approaches. One point measurement, as
recommended by IEC standards, is not representative anymore. A
correction method was developed and demonstrated within UpWind.
The smart control strategies and high resolution modelling
described require a highly accurate wind measurement, since a
small deviation can have a signicant impact on reliability. In the
metrology domain, UpWind considerably improved knowledge on
wind measurement accuracy within the MEASNET 5 community. Cup
anemometers, LIDARs, SODARs and sonic anemometers (WP1A.2 and
WP6) were tested, demonstrated and improved. UpWind‘s WP1A.2
had access to almost all existing wind measurement databases.
The advanced control strategies of smart blades using smart
sensors enable loads to be lowered considerably, so lighter structures
can be developed. The improved modelling capability means
the design safety factors can be less conservative, also paving the
way to lighter structures (WP1A1). UpWind investigated this path,
developing accurate integral design tools that took into account
transport, installation, and operation and maintenance (O&M).
Onshore, the transport of large blades is a particular challenge, and
UpWind developed innovative blade concepts (WP1B1) enabling a
component to be transported in two sections without endangering
its structural safety or aerodynamic efciency. Integral design tools
were also developed to improve the reliability of the entire drive
train (WP1B.2), and to investigate the possibility of developing
proportionally lighter generators for large wind turbine designs.
UpWind investigated 10 different generator congurations and
found promising potential weight reductions for permanent magnet
transversal ux generators.
The UpWind project worked on ensuring the reliability of large
turbines, in particular for far offshore applications, focused on
condition monitoring (WP7) and fault prediction systems. Enabling
fault detection and preventative maintenance with a large potential
for cutting O&M costs, the reliability of future large blades can be
assessed using probabilistic blade failure simulation tools (WP3).
Reducing the loads and the nacelle weight enables the offshore
substructure design to be optimised (WP4). UpWind also developed
integrated wind turbine/substructure design tools and investigated
optimal offshore substructure congurations according to the type
of turbine, the type of soil and water depth. Future deeper water
locations were investigated and innovative cost-effective designs
were analysed.
Deep water foundations
Progress was made on deep water foundation analysis, including the
development of advanced modelling techniques and enhancements
of current design standards which, for example, become very
important for oating designs. With the improved intelligence of wind
turbines, wind farms are operated more and more as power plants,
providing services to the electricity system, such as exibility and
controllability of active and reactive power, frequency and voltage,
fault-ride-through or black start capabilities (WP9). Those capabilities
will allow for substantially increased penetration of wind power in the
grid in the near future. The future large offshore wind farms, far from
shore, will be connected via HVDC VSC, forming the backbone of an
integrated European offshore grid, and supporting the emergence of
a single electricity market.
It will be challenging for the wind energy sector to attract and
train the required number of engineers, postgraduates and PhD
students to full its needs. UpWind focused on training and education
(WP1A3), and developed free of charge advanced training modules
on wind energy, including the latest innovations in the eld. This
content is distributed through the REnKnow database.
A cost model was developed in order to isolate and study
the dimensioning cost parameters of this upscaled wind turbine.
However, as an optimal design should account for the external
design constraints, an innovative design approach was developed
that includes both technical and non-technical disciplines within
the same framework. In this framework, manufacturing, transport,
installation and O&M procedures become design parameters rather
than constraints, enabling the system as a whole to be optimised at a
design stage. Finally, a large potential for cost optimisation lies in the
design safety levels.
A probabilistic design of structural wind turbine components can
be used to design components directly, thereby ensuring the design
is more uniform and economic than that obtained by traditional
design using standards such as the IEC 61400 series. The challenge is
to efciently update the design standards and to promote the use of
an integrated design approach. This will ensure consistency between
the advanced models and strengthen their integration into wind
energy technology, improve the test methods and design concepts
developed in UpWind and, in turn, provide a consistent scientic
background for standards and design tools.
This design approach comprises four parts: providing a
reference wind turbine for ease of communication between the
work packages and integration and benchmarking of their ndings;
developing cost models for upscaling to very large wind turbines
(20 MW) – in co-operation with the upscaling work package;
development and denition of an integral design method; and
development of (pre)standards for the application of the integral
design approach, including interfaces, data needs guidelines
and proposals for a formal international standardisation process.
Author Details
Jos Beurskens, of the Netherlands’ Energy Research Centre (ECN),
headed the UpWind project. The UpWind Coordinator is Peter
Hjuler Jensen from the Danish Technical University Risoe DTU.
e-mail: beurskens@ecn.nl
This article is available on-line. To comment on it or forward it to a
colleague, visit: www.RenewableEnergyWorld.com
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24
WIND TECHNOLOGY SUPPLEMENT - MAY 2011
TECH NOTES
Turbine spacing study nds
wider gaps boosts efciency
Charles Meneveau, a US-based
Johns Hopkins uid mechanics and
turbulence expert, working with a
colleague in Belgium, has devised
a new formula to determine better
spacing for wind turbines.
‘I believe our results are quite
robust. They indicate that large
wind farm operators are going to
have to space their turbines farther
apart,’ said Meneveau, professor
of Mechanical Engineering at the
university’s Whiting School of
Engineering.
Wind farms typically use
turbines with rotor diameters of
about 100 metres and are spaced
about seven rotor diameters
apart. But the new spacing model
developed by Meneveau and Johan
Meyers, an assistant professor at
Katholieke Universiteit Leuven in
Belgium, suggests placing wind
turbines 15 rotor diameters apart
actually results in more cost-
efcient power generation.
Earlier computational models for
large wind farm layouts were based
on the wakes of single machines,
while the new spacing model takes
into account interaction of arrays
with the entire atmospheric wind
ow, says Meneveau.
Meneveau and Meyers argue
that the energy generated in a
large wind farm depends mainly
on the strong winds that the
turbulence created by the tall
turbines pulls down from higher
up in the atmosphere. With the
correct spacing, the turbines alter
the landscape to create turbulence,
that helps draw more powerful
kinetic energy from higher altitudes.
Further research is needed,
Meneveau says, to understand
how varying temperatures can
affect the generation of power on
large wind farms.
Shadow icker study nds no
signicant risk to health
A Parsons Brinckerhoff study
on turbine shadow icker has
concluded that the frequency of the
ickering poses no signicant risk
to health, while the few problems
that have arisen have been
resolved effectively using mitigation
measures, in particular turbine
shutdown systems.
Commissioned by the UK’s
Department of Energy and Climate
Change (DECC), the peer reviewed
study concludes that developers
employ no standard methodology
when introducing environmental
and site specic data into shadow
icker assessments. The three
key computer models used by the
industry – WindPro, WindFarm
and Windfarmer – use a ‘worst
case scenario’ approach and
overlook factors such as wind
speed and cloud cover that can
reduce the duration of the shadow
icker impact.
On health effects and the
nuisance of the shadow icker
effect, it found the frequency of the
ickering from wind turbine rotation
should pose no signicant risk to
health. Shadow icker is more likely
to affect residential amenity than
health. Only dwellings within 130
degrees either side of north relative
to a turbine can be affected and the
shadow can be experienced only
within 10 rotor diameters of the
wind farm.
Having considered the report’s
ndings, the UK government has
concluded that existing planning
guidance on shadow icker is t
for purpose, and no changes to it
are necessary.
Fluid dynamics R&D tie-up
Natural Power, RES and the Faculty
of Engineering at the University
of Porto (FEUP), Portugal, have
signed a signicant research and
development joint venture focused
on developing the next generation
VENTOS® computational uid
dynamics (CFD) model for wind
energy applications.
The R&D programme will
focus on key areas of immediate
interest to the wind energy industry
including non-neutral atmospheric
ows, turbine wakes and forestry.
VENTOS is a family of
computational tools for solving
complex uid equations used
in combination with on-site
measurements to predict wind
conditions at each turbine location
of a proposed wind farm.
Peter Stuart, technical
manager at the RES Group,
commented: ‘This joint venture
will help to expand the envelope
within which VENTOS can
successfully operate, reducing
the errors in our predictions and
ultimately leading to better sited
wind turbines and more accurate
predictions of their yields.’
GE funds storage move
New Hampshire-based SustainX
has received US$14.4 million from
GE Energy Financial Services
and other investors to continue
developing its compressed air
energy storage technology.
GE Energy Financial Services
joins Cadent Energy Partners and
prior investors Polaris Ventures
and Rockport Capital in the new
round of venture nancing, details
of which were not disclosed. A total
of $5.4 million in earlier nancing
for SustainX came from the Small
Business Innovation Research
programme of the National
Science Foundation and from the
Energy Storage Program of the
US Department of Energy. AES
Energy Storage LLC is working with
SustainX to demonstrate a full-size
system in the eld.
According to the company,
SustainX technology keeps air at a
nearly constant temperature during
compression and expansion;
this signicantly improves
efciency and reduces the cost
of compressed-air energy storage
below that of other above-ground
energy-storage options.
Wind updates
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_______________
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BRINGING CPV
TO UTILITIES
UNDERSTAND THE BOTTOM LINE
IMPACT OF MODULE RELIABILITY
FEATURES
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INVERTER TRENDS EXPLORED
GLOBAL PV SYSTEM INTEGRATORS RANKED
Large Scale Solar is a Supplement to Renewable Energy World May 2011
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1
LARGE SCALE SOLAR SUPPLEMENT - MAY 2011
May 2011
CONTENTS
NEWS AND VIEWS
2 From the editor
3 News/analysis
Including a look at the latest market volumes and the prospects through to
2015 for the global solar PV sector, as well as a CSP regional prole with a view
on the prospects for technology in the Middle East and North Africa.
By David Appleyard
FEATURES
7 System integrators challenging German rule
in latest global rankings research
New research on the global PV system integrator industry reveals that German
companies continue to dominate the market, but the number of US-based
integrators is surging and the industry structure could change rapidly in the
next 18 months, especially as major European markets falter amid tariff cuts.
By Ash Sharma
8 Optimising operations with module level
management technologies
A major market development of module optimisation technologies in recent
years has brought down the cost of electronic technologies for providing real-
time monitoring data at the module level. Some products also offer additional
functionality such as theft deterrent, and module switching and isolation for re
safety. What is their value to the market and what is their justication?
By Richard Pitkin
10 The bottom line impact of module reliability
and module longevity
Even low rates of failure can result in signicant commercial losses for the
owners and operators of solar power plants. However, despite the signicance
of the issue, there is little empirical data available and prediction tools remain
immature, making risk determination challenging.
By Eric Fitz
14 Inverter producers drawing battle lines
Having matured to a level where they are pitting clearly differentiated
strategies against each other, PV inverter manufacturers still want to lower their
costs, whether it be by adopting industry-wide strategies or through more
individual efforts. However, Chinese government action could open up new
divisions in the near future.
By Andy Extance
18 San Diego’s new CPV solar giant
The development of a commercial large-scale CPV project is helping to
establish the performance credentials of a technology that offers signicant
opportunities at the power plant scale. With a 180 MW of projects planned in
San Diego and a 25-year PPA in place, CPV has at last entered the main arena.
By David Appleyard
GROUP PUBLISHER Ralph Boon
SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT Tom Fowler
CHIEF EDITOR David Appleyard
CONSULTING EDITOR Jackie Jones
ASSOCIATE EDITOR David Beattie
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PRODUCTION CONTROLLER Rebecca Crews
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Cole, Dan Harper, Kate Hart, Ekow Monney,
Sandra Spencer
DIGITAL SALES MANAGER Leo Wolfert
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LARGE SCALE SOLAR IS A SUPPLEMENT
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2
LARGE SCALE SOLAR SUPPLEMENT - MAY 2011
David Appleyard, Chief Editor, Renewable Energy World
FROM THE EDITOR
Welcome to this new supplement from the
Renewable Energy World stable of publications. We
present this addition to our portfolio as the global
solar industry faces turbulent times.
For instance, news earlier this year that the UK is to join
a number of other European nations with a plan to revise
its solar suport mechanism and cut feed-in tariff payments
for larger scale solar photovoltaic projects, prompted
consternation among many advocates of solar power.
The UK also followed other nations in justifying its
decision on the rapid fall in prices that solar has achieved
over recent years.
Whatever the ramications for the UK’s nascent industry,
many would argue that such a move is, however, in principle
the right thing to do. It is vital that the industry continues and
even accelerates its push to grid parity. At the current level
of maturity, cutting levels of support – it may be argued –
implies a very real competitive pressure on manufacturers to
increase R&D, boost economies of scale, improve materials,
manufacturing and longevity, cut installation times and
improve the overall lifetime cost of energy.
And there is even perhaps some evidence to support
this assertion. For despite the tariff cuts that have been
instituted across Europe, in 2010 the region saw its highest
ever capacity addition with more than 13 GW installed,
according to European Photovoltaic Industry Association
(EPIA) gures. In addition, more than 3 GW of new PV
installations were developed outside of Europe in the year,
with Japan, the US and China guring heavily.
Much of this capacity has come from utility-scale projects
and it is worth noting that, in many respects, it is through
the development of large-scale solar installations that the
major cost reductions can be achieved through increasing
economies of scale. In order to atract the major investments
that such endeavours require, the industry must not
only continue to build condence in its products, it must
also work to ensure that its generation facilities operate
competitively in the event that hard-pressed governments
follow the current round of tariff cuts with more stringent or
even retroactive reductions in levels of suport.
Recognising both the advances of solar energy
into the large scale power generation sector and the
growing engagement of utility users we are delighted
to publish this Large Scale Solar supplement. Within its
pages we offer a look at the latest analysis of the global
solar PV sector along with an outlook to 2015 with
the latest EPIA gures, we also present an extract of a
Fraunhofer ISE report considering the market for CSP
technology in the Middle East and North Africa region.
Reviewing the latest trends and developments in the global
inverter market in an interview with Yole Développement’s
Brice Le Gouic, we hear of the potential disruptive inuence
of Chinese policy-makers on that market. We explore the
potential cost advantages of module level management on
page 8 and in a feature starting on page 10 we consider the
question of module reliability and its impact on the bottom
line for system owners.
And, focusing on an emergent utility-scale technology,
on page 18 we take a look at a 1 MW CPV project in New
Mexico from a company that has already announced far
grander things in a deal with a major US utility.
In all, a snapshot of the dynamic, expanding and
exciting large-scale solar sector.
³
´
DESPITE EUROPEAN TARIFF CUTS,
2010 SAW THE REGION’S HIGHEST
EVER CAPACITY ADDITION AT 13 GW
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3
LARGE SCALE SOLAR SUPPLEMENT - MAY 2011
2010-2015 PV MARKET ANALYSIS
At the end of last year, the
global photovoltaic market hit a
cumulative installed capacity of
40 GW, of which 16.6 GW was
added during 2010. A year of
unprecedented growth saw new
capacity more than double from
7.2 GW in 2009. Worldwide,
solar PV already produces some
50 TWh each year. By 2015,
though, capacity could climb to
range from 131 GW to 196 GW.
These gures come from the
European Photovoltaic Industry
Association (EPIA), which recently
presented its Global Market
Outlook for Photovoltaics until
2015. The trade group linked last
year’s surge to soaring German
and Italian markets. Germany
continued to lead the PV market
worldwide, with 7.4 GW installed
over the year, while Italy added a
substantial 2.3 GW.
Other countries with
signicant growth included the
Czech Republic, which saw a
1.5 GW expansion in 2010, a rise
unlikely to be sustained in 2011.
Japan gained 990 MW, the United
States 900 MW, and France
700 MW. Spain regained some
ground by installing 370 MW
after two years of strongly adverse
conditions. Belgium connected
more than 420 MW of PV.
Europe leads the way
In terms of global installed
capacity, the EU leads with almost
30 GW installed as of 2010 – about
75% of global PV capacity, up from
70% in 2009. Japan (3.6 GW) and
the USA (2.5 GW) are some way
behind, while China has already
entered the Top 10 of the world’s
PV markets and should reach its
rst GW this year.
Across Europe, installations
last year totalled 13.3 GW,
outstripping 9.3 GW for wind to
lead all renewable generation
technologies in added capacity. In
its expansion PV was second only
to gas power plants, for which
new capacity reached between
15.7 GW and 28 GW, depending
on the source. EPIA, in fact,
links global investment in gas
– rather than nuclear and coal
– with the growth in variable
renewable generation sources
such as PV and wind.
At its current pace of
expansion, Europe could increase
the percentage of its electricity
generated from PV by one
percentage point every two years,
says EPIA. The continent’s annual
increase in capacity has grown
from less than 1 GW in 2003 to
over 13 GW last year. Despite
difcult nancial and economic
circumstances, 2010 was expected
to show a major acceleration.
But a 130% Compound Annual
Growth Rate (CAGR) exceeded all
expectations and almost matched
the 145% from 2007 to 2008.
Global growth opportunities
While the EU has dominated the
world market for years, and may
continue to do so, the rest of
the world clearly offers greater
growth potential. PV can provide a
sustainable solution to the energy
needs of the ‘sunbelt’ countries
around the equator. In this region
PV can already compete with
diesel generators for peak power
generation without policy support
Driven by local and global
energy demand, the fastest PV
growth is expected to continue
in China and India, followed by
Southeast Asia, Latin America
and the MENA countries. The PV
potential of the sunbelt countries
could range from 60 GW to 250 GW
by 2020, and from 260 GW to
1100 GW in 2030, representing
27% to 58% of the forecast global
installed PV capacity by then.
Currently, though, among
countries outside Europe only
Japan and the USA have more
than 1 GW of installed PV capacity.
China could reach that threshold
quickly but medium-sized markets
will need several years to reach the
same level of development.
A global analysis reveals three
leading zones that are developing
PV in contrasting ways. The Asia-
Pacic (APEC) region, reecting
its wealth and economic growth, is
the second-placed region behind
Europe. In addition to Japan and
China, the APEC region covers:
South Korea, where the market
has slipped since 2008; Australia,
with more than 300 MW installed
in one year; Taiwan; and Thailand,
where more than 2.5 GW may be
installed in coming years. North
America is the third region, with
Canada developing steadily
OUTLOOK FOR
SOLAR TO SOAR
The 70 MW Rovigo plant in northeast Italy SunEdison
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4
LARGE SCALE SOLAR SUPPLEMENT - MAY 2011
alongside the US to form a huge
market with tremendous potential
for growth.
Outside these three regions,
the MENA (Middle East and
North Africa) region represents
an untapped opportunity for the
medium term. PV also shows great
potential in South America and
Africa, where electricity demand is
expected to rise fast.
Forecasts to 2015
While growth in the EU in coming
years could be low, or even
negative, non-EU countries should
more than pick up the slack from
2011 and 2012 onwards, ensuring
continuous global PV market
growth until 2015 and beyond.
In 2011, though, a market
stagnation or even a small dip
is not impossible. The speed
of political decisions over 2010
and the start of 2011 acts as a
reminder that PV will be incentive
driven until competitiveness is
reached in all of a country’s market
segments. Yet EPIA believes
market developments could raise
global installed capacity in 2015
to between 131 GW and 196 GW,
with 100 GW hit as soon as 2013.
A rapid global rebalancing
could also be imminent, with
the EU accounting for less than
40% of the world market by
2015 in the EPIA’s ‘Moderate’
scenario and about 45% in its
‘Policy-Driven’ scenario. While
2010 showed no sign of such a
change, the rest of the world,
and especially Asia, could prove
a fertile market, even if the EU is
likely to stay ahead in installed
capacity over the next decade.
Production, which was once
balanced between the EU and
the rest of the world, is already
growing faster in Asia, and
particularly China. Modules are
still mainly shipped to the EU,
reecting the smaller size of Asia’s
market, although about half of the
value of a PV system is currently
created further downstream and
closer to the consumers.
Anticipated growth in markets
outside the EU would tend to
reduce the mismatch between
supply and demand. A current
overcapacity should also further
reduce module prices over
coming years and thereby trigger
more demand.
The disparity in installations
between the EU and the rest of
the world should decrease over
the next ve years. On the supply
side, a rise in the relative share of
transport in the cost of PV modules
as module prices decrease should
address the imbalance and
encourage production closer to
the end market. A continuing
slide in PV module prices will also
further erode the share of modules
in the overall value of a PV system.
Production overview
Unquestionably, global PV
production capacity in 2010
considerably outstripped demand.
Even so, several manufacturers
announced plans to accelerate
their capacity expansion.
This apparent contradiction
extends from module
manufacturers further upstream in
the PV value chain. EPIA estimates
that global production capacity for
NON-EU COUNTRIES
SHOULD PICK UP THE
SLACK, ENSURING GROWTH
2010-2015 PV MARKET ANALYSIS
For more info, enter 59 at rew.hotims.com
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RENEWABLE
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A
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Previous Page | Contents | Zoom in | Zoom out | Front Cover | Search Issue | Next Page
RENEWABLE
ENERGY
WORLD
B
A
M
S
a
G
E
F