THE CURATIVE POWER OF WAR
27
either a war in August 1914 or at some time in the future. Nor were these people,
their politicians or their newspapers resigned to its necessity or probability, until
the last minute when hope seemed lost. Ordinary civilians were not the only ones
feeling less than passionate about the possibility of war. While stressing Austria’s
need  for  ‘an  ostensible  success  in  the  eyes  of  the  world’,  the  Kaiser  was  still
worried about the blank cheque the Germans had granted their ally. His political
and military advisers, while hoping war might be localized, also recognized that
an Austro-Serb  conflict  was  a  high-risk  operation  that could  lead  to  a  general
European conflagration. In choosing to run this risk they were encouraged by the
apparent reassurances from Sir Edward Grey, the British foreign secretary, that
Britain would remain neutral in the event of a 
four-power
 continental war, as well
as  the  domestic  problems  plaguing  Entente  powers.  In  Britain  what  Churchill
called ‘the  haggard,  squalid,  Irish  quarrel...threatened to  divide  the  British  nation
into two hostile camps’, while in France a scandal over that nation’s lack of military
preparedness had broken. There was also good news (for the Germans) from
Russia,  where  a  strike  by  Baku  oil  workers  was  spreading  and  had  observers
wondering whether this would lead to the long-expected follow-up revolution to
1905. The degree to which Entente problems affected German thinking is shown
by a 19 July note from the Bavarian 
chargé d’affaires
 in Berlin. While Austria’s
demands were ‘incompatible with [Serbia’s] dignity as a sovereign state’, Berlin
was  ‘absolutely  willing  that  Austria  should  take  advantage  of  this  favourable
opportunity, even at the risk of further complication’.
28
Outside  Austria  and  Serbia,  for  the  first  half  of  July  1914  the  crisis  was
interpreted blandly as another  periodic  Balkan dispute, which  would  surely be
resolved  by  a  last-minute  act  of  statesmanship.  Early  German  reactions  to  the
assassinations  were  mostly  confined  to  reports  of  anti-Serb  demonstrations  in
Vienna  and  the  funeral  of,  and  eulogies  to,  the  dead  archduke.  Tucked  away
under the eulogies, questions were being asked in some organs of the German
mass media as to whether this regicide might yet ‘set alight the powder keg of
European armaments’. Since even the most-favoured editor or media baron had
no  inkling  of  the  contents  of  the  diplomatic  messages  now  heating  the  wires
across Europe, the waves of optimism, indifference and pessimism that surged
through the press in the weeks that followed were understandable, even though
the impressions formed were often false. French and German papers, which in
June  had  been  abusive  to  the  point  of  warmongering,  now  took  a  moderating
approach.  In  Germany  and  Britain,  however,  there  was  no  need  for  any  such
cooling down. ‘It is doubtful if two nations ever went to war’, wrote Oron Hale,
‘with less preliminary  name-calling and  combativeness in  the press.’  With the
British press still primarily focussed on Ireland, German coverage of the emerging
Balkan crisis was naturally far more extensive, devoting not only the most space
but the greatest variety of opinion to the Austro-Serb crisis of any major power.
Even  pan-Germans  were  split.  Where  some  (like  the  totally  unknown  Hitler)
looked forward to Austria-Hungary’s disintegration, most argued, like Class in
the 
Post
, that Germany was honour-bound to aid its ally. Honour-bound perhaps,