384 / ‘The great liner is sinking’
Mosul, warned the Colonial Office, would mean the collapse of Iraq.
59
But, without peace with the Turks, the cost of its defence would be
unacceptably high. To give back control over the Straits would hand
Turkey the lever for the demolition of any Middle East settlement. Yet
Curzon’s hand was stronger than it looked. The Turks were reluctant to
fight their way into Gallipoli and Thrace, and nervous of embracing the
old enemy to the north. After seven months of diplomacy, prolonged
by the deafness, sometimes feigned, of the Turkish delegate, the treaty
of Lausanne was signed. The Turks regained Eastern Thrace, and full
control over Istanbul and Asia Minor. In return, they agreed that the
Straits should be permanently open and their shores demilitarised, a
concession that turned the Black Sea (in the bitter phrase of a Russian
delegate) into ‘an English lake’.
60
But their real concession was to agree
to reserve the dispute over Mosul for arbitration, a vital breathing space
for the fragile mandate. It was a turning point.
In the end, geopolitics had been the decisive factor in the Mid-
dle East peace. By 1921, Russian power had revived enough to make
coercing Turkey impossible and to ruin Curzon’s hopes of imposing his
semi-protectorate in Persia. But not enough to dissuade the two ‘strong
men’ who came to power there from seeking an accommodation with
Britain. Reza Pasha in Persia, like Kemal in Turkey, could exploit the
new balance of power to restore the independence that had seemed all
but lost in 1919. But he was not strong enough to exclude British influ-
ence or expel British interests, whether strategic or economic (like the
Anglo-Persian Oil Company’s concession in southwest Persia).
61
Both
Turkey and Persia became buffer states, poised uneasily between Rus-
sian power to the north and British to the south.
62
But it was enough for
British purposes. On the British side, their Middle East policy was gov-
erned by three powerful assumptions. First, that local leaders, Egyptian
or Arab, were too realistic to expect a ‘real’ freedom and that, shrewdly
managed, the ‘amour propre’ of local nationalisms would not conflict
with their imperial interests. It is quite possible, remarked Lord Mil-
ner hopefully, during his abortive attempt at an Egyptian settlement,
‘that what we mean by “Protectorate” is not really incompatible with
what they mean by “Independence”’.
63
Secondly, that British objects
were best obtained by indirect methods and informal control. ‘These
Eastern peoples with whom we have to ride pillion’, said Curzon with
viceregal condescension, ‘have different seats from Europeans, and it
does not seem to me to matter very much whether we put them on the