Chapter 10 Setting the risk premium: the Capital Asset Pricing Model 251
the grounds that it seemed too large a premium for bearing non-diversifiable market
risk, especially given international opportunities for diversification. Fama and French
(2000) found the equity risk premium averaged 8.3 per cent p.a. over 1950–99, this
being well in excess of the 4.1 per cent p.a average for 1872–1949. Ibbotson Associates,
a consulting firm, specifies a risk premium above the US Treasury Bill return at 8.8 per
cent based on long-term research.
Dimson (1993) reported similar premiums in Japan (9.8 per cent, 1970–92), Sweden
(7.7 per cent, 1919–90) and the Netherlands (8.5 per cent, 1947–89), although the last
two estimates were in real terms, i.e. relative to domestic inflation.
A rather lower UK risk premium was recorded by Grubb (1993/4), at 6.2 per cent
for 1960–92. Grubb suggests that returns to equities in the 1970s and 1980s were excep-
tional and that under a ‘modern scenario of moderate growth and moderate inflation’,
a much lower premium on equities of only 2 per cent would be reasonable. This view
is supported by Wilkie (1994), who, after exhaustive study of past trends in dividend
yields and inflation, argues for a risk premium of 3 per cent for longer-term invest-
ment and 2 per cent for the short term. The evidence is inconclusive, but it is unlikely
that many finance directors would contemplate recommending projects with such low
premiums for risk.
However for shorter periods, say five or ten years (more akin to project lifetimes),
returns are highly volatile and sometimes negative. Clearly, people neither require nor
expect negative returns for holding risky assets! It therefore seems more sensible to
take the long-term average, and to accept that, in the short-term, markets exhibit unpre-
dictable variations.
The investment banking arm of Barclays Bank, Barclays Capital (www.barcap.com)
publishes an annual analysis of equity and gilt-edged returns for various time periods
called the ‘Equity–Gilt Study’. Their data show real investment returns on equities and
government stock, and also on cash deposits. The long-term (105 years) equity risk pre-
mium is 4.0 per cent in real terms, and 4.1 per cent above the return on cash deposits.
Like many observers, Barclays Capital suggests that as the world economy moves
from the low growth/high inflation phase of the 1970s and 1980s to the high growth/
low inflation experienced more recently, equity returns were untypically high. One
reason for expecting lower future returns is technological progress, in general, and the
information revolution, in particular, resulting in shorter competitive advantage peri-
ods. Firms typically have less time to exploit a ‘first mover’s advantage’ before com-
petitors arrive i.e. entry barriers are lower. Another likely depressant is the increased
openness of the world economy due to the activities of the World Trade Organisation.
A complicating factor is the ‘unusual demographic outlook of a shrinking population
and an expanding dependent population’. This suggests that the prices of financial
assets will fall relative to prices of goods and services, so that equities may offer a less
effective inflation hedge in the future.
The Barclays Capital website has an interactive facility that allows users to calculate
average annual returns for specified periods for the UK markets for any period over
1919 to date, and from 1925 to date for the USA. Table 10.5 shows some sample calcu-
lations for long periods and a year-by-year analysis for both countries.
In this table, the risk premium is expressed in nominal terms, i.e. before removing
inflation. The data suggest that, recently, equity premia have been high in relation to
longer-term outcomes. Note the remarkable similarity between UK and US premia.
The data are real geometric average annualised returns, i.e. they exclude the effect of
inflation.
One might conclude that, although the early 2000s were poor years, pulling down
the rolling average, there is little solid evidence in these data of a sea-change in the
equity risk premium given its more recent recovery. However, to reflect prevailing
thought, subsequent analysis will build in a risk premium for equities, i.e. the risk pre-
mium of the overall market portfolio, of 5%.
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