
Part II Conditions and Resources
80
1.0
0
Survival rate function
Experiment period (days)
100 200
0.5
0 100 2000
6°C 12°C
S. leucomaenis
S. malma
Figure 3.8
Changing temperature reverses the
outcome of competition. At low
temperature (6°C) on the left,
the salmonid fish Salvelinus
malma out-survives cohabiting
S. leucomaenis, whereas at 12°C,
right, S. leucomaenis drives
S. malma to extinction. Both
species are quite capable, alone,
of living at either temperature.
AFTER TANIGUCHI & NAKANO, 2000
3.1 HISTORICAL LANDMARKS
3.1 Historical landmarks
Recording the changing behavior of organisms
through the season (phenology) was essential before
agricultural activities could be intelligently timed. The
earliest phenological records were apparently the
Wu Hou observations made in the Chou and Ch’in
(1027–206
BC) dynasties. The date of the first flower-
ing of cherry trees has been recorded at Kyoto,
Japan, since
AD 812.
A particularly long and detailed record was started
in 1736 by Robert Marsham at his estate near the
city of Norwich, England. He called these records
‘Indications of the spring’. Recording was continued
by his descendants until 1947. Marsham recorded
27 phenological events every year: the first flowering
of snowdrop, wood anemone, hawthorn and turnip;
the first leaf emergence of 13 species of tree; and
various animal events such as the first appearance
of migrants (swallow, cuckoo, nightingale), the first
nest building by rooks, croaking of frogs and toads,
and the appearance of the brimstone butterfly.
Long series of measurements of environmental
temperature are not available for comparison with
the whole period of Marsham’s records, but they are
available from 1771 for Greenwich, about 160 km
away. There is surprisingly close agreement between
many of the flowering and leaf emergence events at
Marsham and the mean January–May temperature
at Greenwich (Figure 3.9). However, not surprisingly,
events such as the time of arrival of migrant birds
bears little relationship to temperature.
Analysis of the Marsham data for the emergence of
leaves on six species of tree indicates that the mean
date of leafing is advanced by 4 days for every 1°F
increase in the mean temperature from February to
May (Figure 3.10). Similarly, for the eastern United
States, Hopkins’ bioclimatic law states that the indi-
cators of spring such as leafing and flowering occur
4 days later for every 1° latitude northward, 5° longi-
tude westward or 400 feet (c. 120 m) of altitude.
Collecting phenological records has now been
transformed from the pursuit of gifted amateurs
to sophisticated programs of data collection and
analysis. At least 1500 phenological observation
posts are now maintained in Japan alone. The vast
accumulations of data have suddenly become excit-
ing and relevant as we try to estimate the changes
in floras and faunas that will be caused by global
warming.
Recording seasonal changes
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