
3.6 Solution of ODE’s: Overview 155
The integral in this formula cannot be obtained in closed form. But since this
expression is needed so often in probability and statistics, it received its own name
andisreferredtoastheerror function erf (x) [105]. Using this function as a part
of the ‘‘well-known functions’’, many formulas can be written in closed form in
probability and statistics, which would not have been possible based on the usual
set of ‘‘well-known functions’’.
From a modeling point of view, it is desirable to have closed form solutions since
they tell us more about the system compared to numerical solutions. To see this,
consider Equation 3.25 again, the closed form solution of the body temperature
model, Equations 3.29 and 3.30:
T(t) = T
b
− (T
b
− T
0
) · e
−r · t
(3.106)
In this expression, the effects of the various model parameters on the resulting
temperature curve can be seen directly. In particular, it can be seen that the ambient
temperature, T
b
, as well as the initial temperature, T
0
, affect the temperature
essentially linear, while the rate parameter r has a strong nonlinear (exponential)
effect on the temperature pattern. To make this precise, Equation 3.106 could also
be used for a so-called sensitivity analysis, computing the derivatives of the solution
with respect to its parameters. The expression of T(t) in Equation 3.106 allows T to
be viewed as a multidimensional function
T(T
0
, T
b
, r, t) = T
b
− (T
b
− T
0
) ·e
−r · t
(3.107)
where we can take, for example, the derivative with respect to r as follows:
∂T(T
0
, T
b
, r, t)
∂r
= r · (T
b
− T
0
) ·e
−r · t
(3.108)
This is called the sensitivity of T with respect to r.OnthebasisofaTaylor
expansion, it can be used to estimate the effect of a change from r to r + r (r
being small) as
T(T
0
, T
b
, r + r, t) ≈ T(T
0
, T
b
, r, t) +
∂T(T
0
, T
b
, r, t)
∂r
· r (3.109)
A numerical solution of Equations 3.29 and 3.30, on the other hand, would give
us the temperature curve for any given set of parameters T
0
, T
b
, r similar to an
experimental data set, that is, it would provide us with a list of values (t
1
, T
1
),
(t
2
, T
2
), ...,(t
n
, T
n
) which we could then visualize, for example, using the plotting
capabilities of Maxima (Section 3.8.1). Obviously, we would not be able to see any
parameter effects based on such a list of data, or to compute sensitivities analytically
as above. The only way to analyze parameter effects using numerical solutions is to
compute this list of values (t
1
, T
1
), (t
2
, T
2
), ...,(t
n
, T
n
) for several different values of
a parameter, and then to see how it changes. Alternatively, parameter sensitivities
could also be computed using appropriate numerical procedures. However, you