maximum likelihood estimates of
and
are obtained by maximizing the log-
likelihood; this requires numerical meth-
ods, although in most cases this is easily
done using a packaged routine.
As in the case of logit and probit, each
Tobit estimate comes with a standard error,
and these can be used to construct t statis-
tics for each
ˆ
j
; the matrix formula used to find the standard errors is complicated and
will not be presented here. (See, for example, Wooldridge [2002, Chapter 16].)
Testing multiple exclusion restrictions is easily done using the Wald test or the
likelihood ratio test. The Wald test has a similar form to the logit or probit case; the LR
test is always given by (17.12), where, of course, we use the Tobit log-likelihood func-
tions for the restricted and unrestricted models.
Interpreting the Tobit Estimates
Using modern computers, the maximum likelihood estimates for Tobit models are usually
not much more difficult to obtain than the OLS estimates of a linear model. Further, the
outputs from Tobit and OLS are often similar. This makes it tempting to interpret the
ˆ
j
from Tobit as if these were estimates from a linear regression. Unfortunately, things are
not so easy.
From equation (17.18), we see that the
j
measure the partial effects of the x
j
on
E(y*x), where y* is the latent variable. Sometimes, y* has an interesting economic mean-
ing, but more often it does not. The variable we want to explain is y, as this is the observed
outcome (such as hours worked or amount of charitable contributions). For example, as a
policy matter, we are interested in the sensitivity of hours worked to changes in marginal
tax rates.
We can estimate P(y 0x) from (17.21), which, of course, allows us to estimate
P(y 0x). What happens if we want to estimate the expected value of y as a function of
x? In Tobit models, two expectations are of particular interest: E(yy 0,x), which is
sometimes called the “conditional expectation” because it is conditional on y 0, and
E(yx), which is, unfortunately, called the “unconditional expectation.” (Both expectations
are conditional on the explanatory variables.) The expectation E(yy 0,x) tells us, for
given values of x, the expected value of y for the subpopulation where y is positive. Given
E(yy 0,x), we can easily find E(yx):
E(yx) P(y 0x)E(yy 0,x) (x
/
)E(yy 0,x).
(17.23)
To obtain E(yy 0,x), we use a result for normally distributed random variables:
if z ~ Normal(0,1), then E(zz c)
(c)/[1 (c)] for any constant c. But E(yy
0,x) x
E(uu x
) x
E[(u/
)(u/
) x
/
] x
(x
/
)/(x
/
),
because
(c)
(c), 1 (c) (c), and u/
has a standard normal distribution
independent of x.
Chapter 17 Limited Dependent Variable Models and Sample Selection Corrections 597
Let y be the number of extramarital affairs for a married woman
from the U.S. population; we would like to explain this variable in
terms of other characteristics of the woman—in particular,
whether she works outside of the home—her husband, and her
family. Is this a good candidate for a Tobit model?
QUESTION 17.3