132 / Towards ‘The Sceptre of the World’
new lands reclaimed for cultivation made Egypt the richest and most
productive economy in the Middle East.
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In Egypt, British commercial interests benefited from official
London’s determination to exclude rival powers from the Nile Valley
after 1882 and from Britain’s ability, at considerable diplomatic cost, to
maintain a monopoly of influence in Cairo. Commerce and empire were
in harmony. In China, the commercial and diplomatic interests inter-
locked quite differently. Here British merchants (like Swires or Jardine
Matheson) dominated foreign trade by 1880. But progress in tapping
the vast hinterland behind the treaty-ports had been slow. Exportable
commodities were sparse. With a population larger than India’s, China
took only 8 per cent of Britain’s cotton exports (in 1896) to India’s
27 per cent. The result was an involution of the trading frontier back
towards the treaty-ports as the large British firms diversified into ser-
vices like banking, shipping and utilities.
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British visitors were inclined
to blame a treaty-port culture of sloth and complacency. The intrepid
Isabella Bird demanded more ‘capital, push, a preference for business
over athletics, a working knowledge of the Chinese language and busi-
ness methods and a determination to succeed’.
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But, marooned at the
edge of a vast non-Western world, British traders needed more than
the spirit of enterprise to transform their economic environment. Less
ambitious men hoped for the reform of China’s pre-modern currency
and the abolition of internal tariffs, the likin. But the real challenge was
to persuade the Chinese authorities to sanction a railway programme:
the one sure instrument of commercial progress.
The 1890s brought a breakthrough, or so it seemed. China’s
shock defeat by Japan in 1895 brought a new urge to ‘self-strengthen’,
and a new need for loans.
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The difficulty was that, as in the Ottoman
Empire, the allocation of loans, and the concessions that went with
them, was bound up with speculation about a future partition. A loan
might become a mortgage on the property of a bankrupt. To negotiate
a loan under these conditions required forceful diplomacy at Peking,
as much as commercial intelligence in Shanghai or financial backing
in London. To British commercial interests on the spot, it was obvi-
ous that any reasonable allocation should reflect their pre-eminence.
‘Our true heritage in Asia is all Southeastern Asia up to the Yangtse
valley’, wrote the Times correspondent in Peking to J. O. P. Bland,
who was to play a leading role in pressing for railway concessions.
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China was now ripe for modernisation under British guidance,