30 / Towards ‘The Sceptre of the World’
Europe was negligible. Russia had been the great counterweight to
France in the struggle for Europe before 1815, to Britain’s great benefit.
By the 1820s, however, the renewal of Russia’s southward expansion
around the Black Sea, converging on the Straits, had become a major
British obsession. The uncertain mood of the Ottoman government
(often called ‘the Porte’ after the great gateway in Constantinople where
its main offices were), the restless atmosphere of its European provinces
and the open rebellion after 1830 of its over-mighty viceroy in Egypt,
Mehemet Ali, all raised the prospect of a sudden implosion of Ottoman
power. With the Tsar’s armies a few forced marches away, he was
likely to take a lion’s share of the assets. With control of the Straits,
the sympathy of Orthodox Greeks and Armenians (the main mercantile
classes across the Near East), and a military grip on Eastern Anatolia,
Russia would become the greatest power in the region, and the over-
lordship of Persia would follow in due course. ‘I take Nicholas to
be ambitious, bent upon great schemes, determined to make extensive
additions to his dominions and, animated by the same hatred to England
which was felt by Napoleon . . .’ was Palmerston’s verdict in 1835.
13
Whether Nicholas I and his ministers were really committed to the
grand geopolitical designs attributed to them now seems unlikely. As
an imperial power, Russia suffered from several obvious weaknesses,
not least a backward economy, appalling communications, undigested
minorities and a brittle and overstretched government.
14
Knowing these
defects, the Russians were afraid of encirclement and economic attrition
and tried to pre-empt them. But Palmerston was not alone in believing
that Russia had entered a critical phase in its pursuit of world power.
‘Sooner or later’, he told a cabinet colleague, ‘the Cossak and the Sepoy,
the man from the Baltic and he from the British islands will meet in the
centre of Asia. It should be our business to make sure that the meeting
is as far off from our Indian possessions as may be convenient.’
15
He
hoped to exploit Russia’s defeat in the Crimean War (achieved with
the help of French military power,
16
not just to drive it away from the
Straits but to expel it from the Caucasus, its gateway to Asia and the
scene of savage war against the Chechen population. But there and in
East Asia, where the Aigun treaty brought them closer to North China
in the late 1850s, the Russians were already too strong to be fenced in
in this way.
The threat posed by Russia in the Middle East, and, by exten-
sion, in Central Asia, acted as a magnet on British grand strategy,