
British population during the ‘long’ eighteenth century 59
As Smith pointed out, a figure as high as 6 million for England would
imply that the medieval peak was not exceeded until the middle of the
eighteenth century. It is therefore possible that England was unusual,
even unique, in having failed to recover the population level of the early
fourteenth century before the long eighteenth century. If this was the
case, at least a part of the exceptional spurt which followed might be
regarded as the restoring of an earlier position rather than a novel phe-
nomenon, and the key explicandum would be the failure of the British
population to recover the losses experienced during the Black Death and
its aftermath for more than a quarter of a millennium (R. M. Smith 2002).
If, for argument’s sake, the population of Britain is taken to have been
6million in the early fourteenth century, and the estimates for other west
European countries made by McEvedy and Jones are taken as broadly ac-
curate, then the British share of the west European total in c.1310was
9.0 per cent, a much higher figure than in 1680 and only modestly smaller
than in 1840.
3
Of course, it may be that further reassessment of medieval
peak populations in other countries will produce upward revisions else-
where and so restore the pattern to be found in the estimates of McEvedy
and Jones.
Two other preliminary remarks are needed. First, the system of
Anglican registration of baptisms, burials and marriages instituted in
England in 1538 has made it possible to reconstruct English demographic
history from the mid-sixteenth century in fair detail. Neither Wales nor
Scotland possesses sources which permit their demographic history to
be reconstructed with comparable precision. The discussion which fol-
lows, therefore, will be based almost exclusively on English history. It
is possible, though not demonstrable, that events in Wales and Scotland
followed a broadly similar course to that in England. Scottish population,
for example, probably grew at much the same pace as the English in the
later eighteenth century, but when good data are first available regional
differences were pronounced in Scotland and it may well be true that in
earlier periods also regional contrasts were more pronounced north of
the border than south of it.
4
Second, a number of topics of much inter-
est and importance will be touched on only briefly or obliquely, notably
migration, both internal and external. Such topics are neglected solely
because constraints of space impose selection; they are no less worthy of
attention than the topics which are treated at length.
During the second half of the seventeenth century the intrinsic growth
rate (IGR) in England was very close to zero (−0.023 per cent per annum:
Wrigley et al. 1997: tab. A9.1, 614–15). It reached a peak of 1.75 per cent
per annum in the quinquennium 1821–6, and during the first quarter
3
The west European total in the early fourteenth century calculated in this fashion is 67
million (McEvedy and Jones 1978: 53, 57, 63, 65, 69, 75, 85, 87, 89, 93, 101, 103, 107).
4
The county data on nuptiality and marital fertility in the nineteenth century illustrate
this point (Teitelbaum 1984: tab. 5A.2, 113 and tab. 6.4b, 129); or for regional contrasts in
illegitimacy (Leneman and Mitchison 1987).
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