
82 E. A. Wrigley
Table 3.7 Childhood mortality in England and the Princeton
model North life tables
Equivalent levels in model North
4
q
15
q
55
q
10 1
q
04
q
15
q
55
q
10
1650–99 109 48 27 8.5 11.3 11.0 10.6
1700–49 114 48 28 7.5 10.9 11.0 10.3
1750–99 108 38 24 9.2 11.5 13.0 11.6
1800–37 98 29 25 10.5 12.2 14.9 11.4
Notes:The rates shown are averages of two quarter-century periods (e.g.
1650–99 is the average of 1650–74 and 1675–99; the final period 1800–37 is
the weighted average of 1800–24 and 1825–37, where the later period is given
half the weight of the earlier period). The rates for
1
q
0
are set out in Table 3.6.
Source:Wrigley et al.1997: tab. 6.14, 262.
in
5
q
10
. The table also shows the equiv-
alent model North mortality levels for
each age group and period. For the
childhood age groups the model North
levels show a substantial internal consis-
tency, except that
5
q
5
drifts apart some-
what during the two final periods. Space
does not permit a fuller discussion of
this apparently aberrant development
here, nor the consideration of a com-
parison with the childhood rates in the
third English life table but both issues
are discussed at some length elsewhere
(Wrigley et al.1997: 255–61). In contrast, infant mortality was substantially
more severe than childhood mortality in model North terms but the gap
closed rapidly towards the end of the period as infant rates fell more
markedly than childhood rates.
Another way of characterising the changes shown in this section of
Table 3.7 would be to describe the move towards conformity with the
model North pattern as the result of the drastic fall in mortality in the
first month of life. As evidence of the fundamentally different fortunes
of children and adults, consider the following. At the mortality rates pre-
vailing in 1650–99, of 1,000 infants surviving the first month of life 761
would still be living on their fifteenth birthday, a figure which had im-
proved only marginally, to 778, in 1800–37. In contrast, at the mortality
rates which obtained in 1640–89, of 1,000 adults living on their 25th
birthday, only 419 would still be living at age 60, whereas in 1750–1809
the comparable figure had jumped to 561, a rise of more than one third.
During the long eighteenth century the striking fall in adult mortality,
combined with a significant decline in infant mortality, over a period
in which childhood rates changed very little, was gradually producing
a‘modern’ pattern in age-specific mortality which had been conspicu-
ously absent at the start of the period. Overall expectation of life at birth
wasimproving but the increase was modest because of the contrasting
fortunes of adults and children.
There are many other aspects of the mortality history of early modern
England which are of great interest. The seasonality of death in relation
to age, for example, can be explored effectively with family reconstitu-
tion data and is most instructive (Wrigley et al.1997: 322–43). Again,
there was a notable improvement in mortality in London during the
later eighteenth century (Landers 1993; Laxton and Williams 1989). Nor
was London alone in this regard. Many other English cities, like London,
had ceased to be demographic ‘sinks’ by the end of the century; birth
surpluses replaced the previous excess of deaths. The improvement was
not continuous, however, since the second quarter of the nineteenth
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