76 SIX DAYS OF WA R
motive for his decisions in May, Israeli commanders assumed it was and con-
cluded that they had to strike first. Israel’s fear for the reactor—rather than
Egypt’s of it—was the greater catalyst for war.
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No sooner had the MiG’s flown off when the army’s alert was elevated to
the second level and the air force’s to the highest. Operation Bluebird, upgrad-
ing the protection of Israel’s airfields and other strategic sites, was implemented.
All at once, IDF analysts were compelled to revise their initial assessments.
Responsibility for this revision fell to a diminutive, delicately featured man,
the chief of military intelligence, Gen. Aharon “Aharale” Yariv. At forty-seven,
Yariv had held field commissions in the Haganah, the British army, and finally
the IDF, before serving as Israel’s military attaché in Washington. Returning to
Israel, he was appointed chief of Aman—the intelligence branch—in 1964, at the
time of the Arab summits and Nasser’s plan for a phased buildup to war. While
other general staff officers were charged with dealing with the almost daily flare-
ups along the border, Yariv had the unenviable job of gauging when the Arab
world would be in a position to wage a full multifront attack. That point, he
concluded, would arrive sometime between 1967 and 1970, with the later date
the likelier. But that estimation was predicated on the belief that Egypt would
remain economically strapped and pinned down in Yemen—an assumption that
had been suddenly and stunningly disproved. Now, as Egyptian troops and ar-
mor continued to flood Sinai, Yariv was to suggest alternative scenarios.
“It’s unclear whether Egypt’s intention was from the start aimed at a mili-
tary confrontation or at a limited gain of prestige,” Yariv briefed his senior
officers on May 19. “In any event, we are prepared for a confrontation, whether
as a result of an intentional or unintentional provocation.” He showed aerial
photos of the Egyptian forces, now numbering 80,000 men, 550 tanks, and
1,000 guns, and surveyed their possible courses of action. The Egyptians might
blockade or bomb the nuclear reactor, Yariv speculated, though his best guess
had them simply building up strength in Sinai. As such, they could either keep
Israel indefinitely mobilized, bleeding economically, or provoke an Israeli first-
strike that the Arabs could turn into a rout.
Later, elaborating before the general staff, Yariv opined that Nasser no longer
thought that Egypt was ill matched for Israel militarily, but was ready to gamble
on short, focused assaults to conquer parts of the Negev or to smash the IDF
among the Sinai dunes. “They’ll strike you with something limited. You’ll strike
back and then they’ll bomb Dimona . . . Their forces in Bir Hasana and Jabal
Libni are ready to maneuver.” He recommended activating most of Israel’s
140,000 reserves, and telling them frankly that their call-up was in preparation
for war. Israel’s civilian population should be told the truth as well, advised Yariv.
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The army’s analyses all assumed that Nasser operated according to a ratio-
nal, quantifiable impetus—no mention was made, for example, of his turbulent
relationship with ‘Amer—and yet his next moves remained a mystery. “There
won’t be a fight as long as the Egyptians just sit in Sinai and don’t budge,”