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the most extreme scenario (an average temperature increase of 2.0°C and a 15%

reduction in rainfall), it is evident that more than half of the species that are

currently restricted to the reserve are predicted to go extinct. A second category

of cacti, whose current ranges are almost equally within and outside the reserve,

are expected to contract their ranges, but in such a way that their distributions

become almost completely conﬁned to the reserve. A ﬁnal category, whose current

distributions are much more widespread, also suffer range contractions but in

future they are still expected to be distributed within and outside the reserve. In

the case of these cacti, then, the location of the reserve seems to cater adequately

for potential range changes. But how many other nature reserves may turn out to

be in the wrong place?

14.5 Finale

This ﬁnal chapter has brought together a diversity of environmental problems

(overexploitation, habitat disruption, introduced species, global climate change),

which themselves require us to understand population, community and ecosystem

dynamics. We have seen that the dynamics of endangered species are governed

by a high level of uncertainty; despite this, our knowledge is sometimes sufﬁcient

to safeguard biodiversity.

Nevertheless, there is no room for complacency. We have insufﬁcient know-

ledge and, just as important, insufﬁcient ﬁnancial resources to protect everything

everywhere. In desperate times, painful decisions have to be made about priorities.

Thus, wounded soldiers arriving at ﬁeld hospitals in the First World War were

subjected to a triage evaluation: priority 1, those who were likely to survive but

only with rapid intervention; priority 2, those who were likely to survive with-

out rapid intervention; priority 3, those who were likely to die with or without

intervention. Conservation managers are often faced with the same kind of

choices and need to demonstrate some courage in giving up on hopeless cases,

and prioritizing those species and habitats where something can be done.

The spectrum of opinions on conservation is complete. It ranges from the

environmental terrorist, who is prepared to destroy property and put human life

at risk for what is seen as unacceptable exploitation of animals, to the other

extreme of the exploitational terrorist, who is prepared to destroy a rare habitat

just as it is about to achieve protected status. There are zealots on both sides of

the spectrum too. On the one hand, there are the industrialists, ﬁshers, farmers

and foresters who accept none of the conservationist case and are not prepared

to look objectively at the scientiﬁc evidence, while, on the other, are the environ-

mental zealots – preservationists who seem unwilling to accept any exploitation

of the natural world, some even pronouncing that ﬁshing or hunting or logging

are intrinsically wrong. The middle ground is occupied by both exploiters and

conservationists whose basic philosophy holds that natural resources can be used,

but this should be in a sustainable and balanced manner. A thorough under-

standing of the principles and applications of ecological science should enable

all to pay healthy regard to the scientiﬁc aspects of what, in its broader context,

is very much an ethical, economic and sociopolitical problem. The task for the

next generation of ecologists is to bring their understanding to bear in this

challenging environment.

Chapter 14 Conservation

479

the ‘triage’ approach to

setting priorities

the challenge – taking a

balanced view

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Part IV Applied Issues in Ecology

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The scale of the problem

Conservation is the science concerned with increas-

ing the probability that the Earth’s species and

communities (or, more generally, its biodiversity) will

persist into the future. Biodiversity is, at its most

basic, the number of species present, but it can also

be viewed at smaller scales (e.g. genetic variation

within populations) and larger scales (e.g. the variety

of community types present in a region). About

1.8 million species have so far been named, but the

real number is probably between 3 and 30 million.

The current observed rate of extinction may be as

much as 100–1000 times the background rate

indicated by the fossil record.

Endangered species and rarity

A species may be rare in the sense that its geographic

and/or habitat ranges are small or in the sense that

local populations, even where they do occur, are small.

Many species are naturally rare but just by virtue of

their rarity species are not necessarily at risk of extinc-

tion. However, other things being equal, it will be

easier to make a rare species extinct. Some species

are born rare, others have rarity thrust upon them as

a result of the actions of humans.

Threats to biodiversity

The principal causes of decline are overexploitation,

habitat degradation and the introduction of exotic

species. Overexploitation occurs when people harvest

a population (for food or trophies) at a rate that

is unsustainable. Humans adversely affect habitat

in three ways – a proportion of available habitat may

simply be destroyed, or it may be degraded by pollu-

tion, or it may be disturbed by human activities to the

detriment of some of its occupants. Human-caused

introductions of exotic species, which may occur

accidentally or intentionally, have sometimes been

responsible for dramatic changes to native species

and natural communities.

Genetic problems

Rare alleles of a gene may confer no immediate

advantage but could turn out to be well suited to

changed environmental conditions in the future –

small populations that have lost rare alleles through

genetic drift have less potential to adapt. A more

immediate potential problem is inbreeding depression

– when populations are small there is a tendency for

individuals breeding with one another to be related,

and this may lead to reductions in fertility, survivor-

ship, growth rates and resistance to disease.

The extinction vortex

A given population may have been reduced to a very

small size by one or more of the processes described

above, and this may have led to an increased frequency

of matings among relatives and the expression of

deleterious recessive alleles in offspring, leading to

reduced survivorship and fecundity and causing the

population to become smaller still – the so-called

extinction vortex.

Conservation in practice

Much of conservation biology is a crisis discipline con-

cerned with small populations in immediate danger

of extinction. A high level of uncertainty governs the

dynamics of small populations, whereas large popula-

tions can be described as being governed by ‘the law

of averages’. Three kinds of uncertainty or variation can

be identiﬁed that are of particular importance to the

fate of small populations: demographic uncertainty,

environmental uncertainty and spatial uncertainty.

Moreover, loss of habitat frequently results not only

in a reduction in the absolute size of a population

but also the division of the original population into a

number of fragments.

Predicting minimum viable population size

Population viability analysis, a simulation modeling

tool, can be used to estimate the minimum population

SUMMARY

Summary

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Chapter 14 Conservation

481

size of a particular species that should ensure its per-

sistence with an acceptable probability (e.g. greater

than 90%) for a reasonable period (e.g. 100 years).

Armed with such information, managers can work

out the best approach to guard against extinction

(supplementary feeding, predator control, one or

more reserves of appropriate size, etc.)

Selecting protected areas

Given limited funds to purchase protected areas, it

is important to devise priorities so that they can be

evaluated systematically and chosen with care. We

know that the biotas of different locations vary in

species richness, the extent to which the biota is unique

and the extent to which the biota is endangered; one

or more of these criteria could be used to prioritize

potential areas for protection. The principles of island

biogeography theory provide some clues about the

most appropriate shape and disposition of protected

areas. The selection of a network of reserves to optimize

the protection of biodiversity can be performed on the

basis of ‘complementarity’ (selecting at each step the

site that is most complementary to those already

selected in terms of the biodiversity it contains) or

‘irreplaceability’ (deﬁned in terms of the likelihood

of an area being required to achieve speciﬁed con-

servation targets).

Global climate change and conservation

Predicted changes to patterns of temperature and

rainfall around the world have important implications

for conservation biology. Changes to environmental

conditions will affect the size and location of habitable

areas of species, whether or not they are currently

at risk of extinction. Moreover, nature reserves may

turn out to be in the wrong places. Models of global

climate change can be used by ecologists to safe-

guard species and communities when planning for

the conservation of individual species or designing

reserve networks.

REVIEW QUESTIONS

Review questions

Asterisks indicate challenge questions

1* Of the estimated 3–30 million species on Earth,

only about 1.8 million have so far been named.

How important is it for the conservation of

biodiversity that we can name the species

involved?

2 Species may be ‘rare’ on three counts: what

are these? From your own experience, provide

examples of three ‘rare’ species and explain

the nature of their rarity.

3* Researchers collected data on the relative

abundance of 16 Peruvian mammal species

in forest areas that contrasted in whether they

were subject to light or heavy hunting by local

people. As an index of vulnerability to hunting

they used the reduction in relative abundance

in the heavily versus lightly hunted areas. This

was plotted against intrinsic rate of population

increase (r

max

), age of ﬁrst reproduction and

longevity (Figure 14.15). Provide explanations

for the relationships shown in the ﬁgure.

Would you expect the variables r

max

, age

of ﬁrst reproduction and longevity to be

intercorrelated? If so, how? Many species of

large animals have gone extinct in the last

50,000 years. What light do the results of

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Part IV Applied Issues in Ecology

482

this study shed on the possible role of

overexploitation by humans in historical

extinctions? On the basis of these results,

what advice would you give wildlife managers

about conserving mammals in Peruvian

forests?

4 Are there any circumstances where the

intentional introduction of an exotic species

can be considered a good thing because it

enhances biodiversity?

5 Unpredictable temporal variability is a feature

of most ecosystems. How can conservation

biologists allow for such uncertainty when

they devise species management plans?

6 Explain, with examples, how the loss or

introduction of a single species can have

conservation consequences throughout

a whole ecological community.

7 In desperate times, painful decisions have to

be made about priorities. Discuss the ‘triage’

approach to conservation assessment.

List some highly endangered species of

which you are aware and propose priorities

for conservation action. Are any so hopeless

that they should be allowed to go extinct?

8 Discuss the value of zoos and botanical

gardens in nature conservation.

9 Discuss the advantages and limitations of

using population viability analysis tools to

devise species management plans.

10* The famous ecologist of the early 20th century,

A.G. Tansley, when asked what he meant by

nature conservation, said it was maintaining

the world in the state he knew as a child.

From your perspective, as we enter the new

millenium, how would you deﬁne the aims of

conservation biology?

Age of first reproduction (years) Longevity (years)

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0 0 10 20 30123 456

–1

–2

–3

–1

–2

–3

–1

–2

–3

Change in abundance (abundance

Yavari Miri – abundance Tahuayo)

(a) (b) (c)

Figure 14.15

Relationships between (a) r

max

, (b) age of ﬁrst reproduction, and (c) longevity and the vulnerability of mammals to population declines

measured as the change in abundance between lightly and heavily hunted areas of forest. The mammals are represented by the following

letters: a, white-lipped peccary; b, collared peccary; c, red brocket deer; d, gray brocket deer; e, lowland tapir; f, black agouti; g, green

acouchy; h, woolly monkey; I, howler monkey; j, red wakari monkey; k, brown capuchin; l, white-fronted capuchin; m, monk saki monkey;

n, titti monkey; o, spider monkey; p, squirrel monkey.

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