
196 Climate change
An important corollary is that, all else being equal, a decrease of upper-tropospheric
temperatures leads to an increase in the greenhouse effect.
It would be of interest to apportion this greenhouse effect between the different gases:
however, this cannot be done in a simple way, given the large difference in composition
between the hypothetical and actual atmospheres, because the effects of the separate gases
do not add linearly. (See Problem 8.2.) For example, numerical experiments in which
different greenhouse gases are in turn completely removed from the atmosphere show that
the greenhouse effect due to both CO
2
and water vapour is smaller than the sum of the
individual effects of each of them. Nevertheless it is clear that water vapour is the most
important greenhouse gas in determining the current atmospheric state, contributing around
2/3 of the current greenhouse effect, and that CO
2
is the next most important, contributing
around 1/4.
Different considerations apply when we consider the response of any given climate
state (for example, the current climate or the ‘pre-industrial’ climate), to perturbations
to the various absorbing gases or other climate variables. Examples of interest include
perturbations to greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosols, clouds or albedo, and especially
those perturbations caused by human activities. Here an important quantity is the radiative
forcing, defined as the net decrease of the upward irradiance at the tropopause due to a
change in some climate-change driver, such as a specified increase in the amount of a
gaseous absorber. It is assumed that the surface and troposphere are otherwise held fixed
and that stratospheric temperatures, if perturbed, have readjusted to radiative-dynamical
equilibrium.
The net upward irradiance at the tropopause equals the outgoing irradiance minus the
unreflected incoming solar irradiance there; in equilibrium, this would be zero. If the
radiative forcing (RF) is positive, the incoming irradiance exceeds the outgoing irradiance
and there is a positive net heat flux into the climate system below the tropopause, leading
to a warming of the climate; a negative RF contributes to a cooling of the climate. An
important example of a positive RF is provided by the enhanced greenhouse effect,in
which an increase in a tropospheric greenhouse gas decreases the outgoing long-wave
irradiance (often called the outgoing long-wave radiation, or OLR). Calculation of the
RF due to atmospheric aerosols is very complex: they lead to ‘direct’ effects, by scattering
and absorbing long-wave and short-wave radiation, and to ‘indirect’ effects, by modifying
the microphysical and hence the radiative properties of clouds; overall, both effects are
believed to give negative RFs.
Figure 8.1 shows estimated values of the RFs associated with the main climate-change
drivers for the period 1750–2005; for the comparatively small perturbations involved,
the separate effects do add fairly linearly. Drivers with positive RFs include the long-lived
greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane (CH
4
), nitrous oxide (N
2
O) and the halocarbons
(including CFCs), and also tropospheric ozone and stratospheric water vapour. Aerosols
have negative RFs, while surface albedo changes can contribute either positive or negative
RFs. These drivers are all significantly affected by human activities; the only significant and
sustained natural RF over the period was due to an increase in solar irradiance, although the
11-year solar cycle causes oscillatory changes in RF, and stratospheric aerosols resulting
from massive volcanic eruptions can give short-term negative RFs.