
218 API RECOMMENDED PRACTICE 2T
response distribution tends back to Gaussian based on the averaging properties of the system. However, for
ringing dominated responses, the distribution is much more variable than commonly observed in offshore
structure responses, and commonly used distributions are not at all appropriate. While linear Gaussian
responses typically have a value of less than 4 standard deviations at the 1-in-1000 level, second-order
responses typically have values between 4 and 6, and ringing responses have been observed with 1-in-1000
values of 6 to 20 standard deviations (Davies, et al. 1994
[123]
).
The estimation of extreme values for nonlinear responses is often performed using generalized distributions
such as Weibull, exponential, or Gumbel distributions. These functions are not related to the physics of the
process, but are general purpose extreme value fitting functions which are used to fit data. Care should be
taken to not apply the results to conditions other than those represented by the individual test, such as
extrapolation to much longer return periods.
The fitting of extremal distributions to model test data with multiple populations should be performed to the
segment of the data of interest. In the case of extreme value estimates, the fitting is generally done to the tail
of the data. This is done by segmenting the data, or by masking the lower values, so that the fitting only sees
a single population of points.
A.2.7.2.2 Event-based Statistics
Because ringing appears to be caused by an impulsive type of load, and there are multiple peaks in a given
ringing event, an analysis of the peaks of a tension time series measurement will contain many events which
are statistically correlated with other events. Since ringing responses are associated with specific waves, it
has proven useful to extract snippets from the measured resample tension responses time series so that each
snippet containing a ringing event is associated with a single unique on one sample per wave event. This is
performed with a zero-crossing analysis conditioned on the zero-crossing analysis of the waves. In other
words, a one-to-one correspondence between each candidate ringing event and an individual wave crest is
established by cross-correlating tension and wave snippets extracted between zero- or mean-level threshold
crossings. The resulting data set of snippets will have the same number of tension and wave events as there
are waves, and is much easier to treat statistically (Davies, et al. 1994
[123]
).
A.2.7.2.3 Statistical Stability, Confidence Bounds
The statistical stability and confidence bounds in fits to measured data are closely tied to the variability of the
processes discussed above. In general, the fitting used in model test data analysis is based on fitting the tails
of a process, and estimation of an expected largest value in approximately three to six hours of prototype
response (0.0050 to 0.0005 exceedence levels). In a process which is well behaved, and which contains one
statistical population, it is reasonable to estimate this from a single observation corresponding to the design
storm duration. However, for processes which are much more variable, and for which only a few large events
are observed in the typical three to six hour observation, much longer data sets are required for reasonable
characterization of the process. The length of data sets required can be determined from the data itself. If the
estimates of an expected design exposure maximum converge with additional observations, then sufficient
data are present.
A.2.8 Design Recipes
In general spectral analysis, it is often assumed that the energy in one frequency band is statistically
independent of the energy in other frequency bands, and that both are Gaussian in nature. In the case of
narrow band spectra, the estimation of maxima is often done using the theoretical relationships first derived
by Rice (1944 to 1945)
[211]
. Given a time record of response in which N extreme values between mean level
threshhold crossings are observed, the most likely maximum value of all the extremes is given by:
max 2 ln N=σ
(A.1)
where σ is the standard deviation of the response determined from the record. In cases where the spectrum is
broad band (with spectral bandwidth ε), the most likely maximum value becomes:
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