10 CHAPTER 1. WHAT IS THE MONTE CARLO METHOD?
spontaneously revert back causing undesirable effects. This is a more difficult problem that
we may see as soon as 2005 or earlier.
Another benefit of small size is that more circuitry can be packed into the same silicon real
estate and more sophisticated signal processing algorithms can be implemented. In addition,
the design of these algorithms is undergoing continuing research resulting in more efficient
processing per transistor. All these effects combine to give us the geometric growth we see
in computer speed per unit cost.
Other skeptics argue that market forces do not favor the development of faster, cheaper
computers. Historically, the development fast computing was based upon the need for it
from science, big industry and the military. The growth of the personal computer industry is
related to its appeal to the home market and its accessibility to small business. So successful
has the personal computer been that the mainframe computer industry has been squeezed
into niche markets. Some predict that eventually consumers, particularly the home markets,
will stop driving the demand so relentlessly. How fast does a home computer have to be? is
a typical statement heard from this perspective. However, applications usually grow to keep
up with new technologies, so perhaps this argument is not well-founded. “Keeping up with
the Joneses” is still a factor in the home market.
One trend that should not be ignored in this argument is the emergence of new tech-
nologies, like semi-optical (optical backplane computers) or completely optical computers.
The widespread introduction of this technology might cause computer speeds to exceed the
present-day geometric growth!
Another factor weighing in favor of Monte Carlo is that the Monte Carlo technique is one
based upon a minimum amount of data and a maximum amount of floating-point operation.
Deterministic calculations are often maximum data and minimal floating-point operation
procedures. Since impediments to data processing are often caused by communication bot-
tlenecks, either from the CPU to cache memory, cache memory to main memory or main
memory to large storage devices (typically disk), modern computer architecture favors the
Monte Carlo model which emphasizes iteration and minimizes data storage.
Although the concluding remarks of this section seem to favor the Monte Carlo approach, a
point made previously should be re-iterated. Analytic theory development and its realiza-
tions in terms of deterministic calculations are our only way of making theories regarding the
behaviour of macroscopic fields, and our only way of modelling particle fluences in a sym-
bolic way. Monte Carlo is simply another tool in the theoretician’s or the experimentalist’s
toolbox. The importance of analytic development must never be understated.