first report, the White House released a second document with further details
about how the federal government would respond if avian flu were to reach
the United States. Because so many localities could be hit with the flu at one
time, the report suggests that the federal government may not be able to
respond to this crisis as well it does to hurricanes and other natural disasters.
Were human-to-human transmission of this flu to reach the United States,
domestic travel could be restricted, schools and workplaces closed, and
quarantines imposed. Among other recommendations, this report advises
people to maintain a distance of three feet from each other in the event of the
pandemic.
5
Bird flu has not yet reached pandemic stage, and it may never reach it. As
of May , avian flu in humans remains in what the World Health
Organization denotes as “self limiting” or Phase ; the virus cannot spread
from person to person (except possibly in rare cases of very close contact).
Even in the absence of intervention, the virus would not spread among
humans. So why the concern?
The problem is that viruses can adapt to novel environments quickly;
through natural selection and other evolutionary processes, they acquire new
characteristics. Although the current HN bird flu virus does not transmit
easily to humans, just a couple of small genetic changes could lead to the flu
being transmissible from human to human. Why is it that we don’t get bird
flu easily?
Part of the reason that humans don’t acquire and transmit bird flu more
easily is that just getting into our cells is an obstacle for this HN flu strain.
Flu viruses carry a molecule called hemagglutinin that binds to receptors on
the host cell, enabling the virus to enter the cell; the H of HN denotes that
this virus strain has the fifth major variant of hemagglutinin. Various mole-
cules known as sialic acids are on the surfaces of our cells; these molecules
play a number of roles in a variety of systems as diverse as the immune
system and neurobiology. The HN hemagglutinin binds easily to the ,
form of sialic acid, but usually not to the , form. Fortunately for us, the
surfaces of cells in the human trachea contain mainly the , form; cells lower
in the respiratory tract, however, are coated with the , form. The ease at
which the virus can adapt to being able to bind to the , form of sialic acids
is an important aspect of the more general question of the likelihood of
humans contacting HN more readily. Unfortunately, it appears that HN
may already be evolving in this manner; the virus isolated from a human in
Turkey early in is a mixed population, with some viral particles showing
affinity to binding to the , form.
6
Concerns about “bird flu” are not new; indeed, for years many public
health experts have been fretting about the possibility of a deadly flu virus
acquiring human-to-human transmission. Such a change in the virus could
lead to a pandemic that would infect millions. A New Yorker article written
in early called the avian flu “nature’s bioterrorist.”
7
In the worst-case
scenario, a pandemic of this flu could kill over million people worldwide.
The Baby with the Baboon Heart