Battarbee R.W., Binney H.A. (Eds.) Natural Climate Variability and Global Warming: A Holocene Perspective
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NATURAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY
AND GLOBAL WARMING
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NATURAL CLIMATE
VARIABILITY AND
GLOBAL WARMING:
A HOLOCENE
PERSPECTIVE
EDITED BY
RICHARD W. BATTARBEE
AND
HEATHER A. BINNEY
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH CENTRE,
UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON
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A John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Publication
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Library of Congress Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
Natural climate variability and global warming : a Holocene
perspective / edited by R.W. Battarbee and H.A. Binney.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-4051-5905-0 (hardcover : alk. paper)
1. Paleoclimatology—Holocene. 2. Climatic changes—Research.
3. Global warming—Research. I. Battarbee, R.W. II. Binney, H.A.
(Heather A.)
QC884.2.C5N38 2008
551.609′01—dc22
2007038976
ISBN: 978-1-4051-5905-0
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Set in 10/12.5pt Minion
by Graphicraft Limited, Hong Kong
Printed and bound in Singapore
by Fabulous Printers Pte Ltd
1 2008
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Contents
Contributors vi
Abbreviations, acronyms, and terminology viii
1 Holocene climate variability and global warming 1
Richard W. Battarbee
2 Holocene climate research – progress, paradigms, and problems 7
H. John B. Birks
3 The role of people in the Holocene 58
Frank Oldfield
4 Modeling the climate of the Holocene 98
Michel Crucifix
5 The early to mid-Holocene thermal optimum in the North Atlantic 123
Eystein Jansen, Carin Andersson, Matthias Moros, Kerim H. Nisancioglu,
Birgitte F. Nyland, and Richard J. Telford
6 Holocene climate change and the evidence for solar and
other forcings 138
Jürg Beer and Bas van Geel
7 Climate of the past millennium: combining proxy data and
model simulations 163
Hugues Goosse, Michael E. Mann, and Hans Renssen
8 Latitudinal linkages in late Holocene moisture-balance variation 189
Dirk Verschuren and Dan J. Charman
9 Holocene rapid land-cover changes – evidence and theory 232
Martin Claussen
10 Holocene perspectives on future climate change 254
Raymond S. Bradley
Index 269
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Contributors
Carin Andersson Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégaten 55, 5007
Bergen, Norway
Richard W. Battarbee Environmental Change Research Centre, University
College London, 26 Bedford Way, London WC1E 6BT, UK
Jürg Beer Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG),
CH-8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland
H. John B. Birks Department of Biology, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate
Research, University of Bergen, N-5007 Bergen, Norway, and Environmental
Change Research Centre, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
Raymond S. Bradley Climate System Research Center, Department of
Geosciences, University of Massachusetts Morrill Science Center, 611 North
Pleasant Street, Amherst, MA 01003-9297, USA
Dan J. Charman School of Geography, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, Devon
PL4 8AA, UK
Martin Claussen Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology and Meteorological
Institute, University Hamburg, Bundesstr. 53, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany
Michel Crucifix Institut d’Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître, Université
Catholique de Louvain, 2 Chemin du Cyclotron, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve,
Belgium
Bas van Geel Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, Universiteit van
Amsterdam, Kruislaan 318, 1098 SM Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Hugues Goosse Université Catholique de Louvain, Institut d’Astronomie et de
Géophysique G. Lemaître, Chemin du Cyclotron, 2, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve,
Belgium
Eystein Jansen Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégaten 55, 5007 Bergen,
Norway and Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, Norway
Michael E. Mann Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental
Systems Institute (EESI), Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA
16802-5013, USA
Matthias Moros Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégaten 55, 5007
Bergen, Norway and Institut für Ostseeforschung, Warnemunde, Germany
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Contributors vii
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Kerim H. Nisancioglu Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégaten 55, 5007
Bergen, Norway
Birgitte F. Nyland Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégaten 55, 5007
Bergen, Norway and Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, Norway
Frank Oldfield Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69
7ZT, UK
Hans Renssen Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam,
De Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Richard J. Telford Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégaten 55, 5007
Bergen, Norway and Department of Biology, University of Bergen, Norway
Dirk Verschuren Limnology Unit, Department of Biology, Ghent University,
K.L. Ledeganckstraat 35, B-9000 Gent, Belgium
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Abbreviations, acronyms,
and terminology
AMO Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation
AO Arctic Oscillation (also known as Northern Annular Mode)
AOGCM Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model
AUPs abrupt, unprecedented and persistent climate anomalies
CCM Community Climate Model
CCSM Community Climate System Model
CFR climate field reconstruction
CLIMAP Climate: Mapping, Analysis, and Prediction
CLIMBER CLIMate and BiosphERe Group – a climate model of the
Climate System Department, Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impact Research
CLIO coupled large-scale ice–ocean
COHMAP Co-operative Holocene Mapping Project
CPS composite plus scale
CSM climate space model
DATUN data assimilation through upscaling and nudging
DPSIR drivers–pressure–state–impact–response
EBM Energy Balance Model
ECBILT ECBilt is a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice model
containing simplified parameterizations of the subgrid-scale
physical processes (an intermediate-complexity climate
model)
ECHO-G ECHO-G is a global coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model
consisting of two-component models, the atmospheric
component (ECHAM4) and the oceanic component
(HOPE-G)
ELLDB European Lake-level Database
EMICS Earth models of intermediate complexity
ENSO El Niño–Southern Oscillation
EOF empirical orthogonal function
EPICA European Programme for Ice Coring in Antarctica
ERIK GCM-based experiment run for the past 1000 years with the
ECHO-G model (the “Erik” simulation)
GCM General Circulation Model
GDD growing degree days
GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
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Abbreviations, acronyms, and terminology ix
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GISS Goddard Institute for Space Studies
GKSS GKSS Research Centre, Hamburg, Germany
IGBP International Geosphere–Biosphere Program
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPSL Institut Pierre et Simon Laplace [climate model of]
ITCZ Intertropical Convergence Zone
HOLIVAR European Science Programme on “Holocene Climate
Variability”
LGM Last Glacial Maximum
LIA Little Ice Age
LLN-2D Louvain-la-Neuve [two-dimensional climate model of]
MCA Medieval Climate Anomaly
MIS Marine Isotope Stage
MIT-EMIC Michigan Institute of Technology – Earth System Model of
Intermediate Complexity
MoBidiC Modèle Bidimensionnel du Climat
MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (NASA/EOS
instrument)
MWP Medieval Warm Period
NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research
NOA North Atlantic Oscillation
PAGES Past Global Changes
PANASH Paleoclimate and Environments of the Northern and Southern
Hemispheres
PCI Polar Circulation Index
PDF probability density function
PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation
PEP Pole–Equator–Pole
PMIP Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project
POLLANDCAL POLlen-LANDscape CALibration
RegEM regularized expectation maximization
SNR signal to noise ratio
SOI Southern Oscillation Index
SSI spectral solar irradiance
TIMS thermal ionization mass spectrometry
TSI total solar irradiance
YD Younger Dryas
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