Battarbee R.W., Binney H.A. (Eds.) Natural Climate Variability and Global Warming: A Holocene Perspective
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carbon (
14
C) (cont.):
dates 239
production rate 143, 144
short-term variations 36
and solar activity 196
solar forcing 217, 218, 219
carbon cycle climate model 34
carbon dioxide 2, 32, 73, 142
Amazon forest 244
changes 33–5
concentration 3, 29, 76, 108, 109
and human activity 33–5
and land use changes 40
natural trend 74
North Africa 244
observed trend 74
and surface temperature 176
vegetation fraction 245
charcoal index 76
China
cultivation 66
deforestation 66
Dongge Cave 207, 208–9
drought 260, 261
erosion rates 70–2
chronology, wiggle-matching 192
CLIMAP, Climate: Mapping, Analysis and
Prediction 27, 30
climate
determinism 77
global 264
gradients 26, 38
indicator response 192
indices 165
modes 43
present day 236–8, 236
trapping 113–15
variables 27
climate change 1–6, 22, 42, 176–7, 256
850
BC event 152–4, 153, 155
anthropogenic 2–3, 30, 244, 254,
255
causes 36, 154, 256
cultural collapse 75–80
decadal scale 32, 254
decisive perturbation 110
extreme events 31, 203
future 203, 232, 254–68
and global warming 1–6
high frequency 182
low frequency 166, 171, 203
magnitude 7, 41, 77, 152
mechanism hypothesis 176–7
millennial scale 219
modes of variability 42–3
and moisture balance 189–90
natural 1, 2, 4, 7, 43, 254
rapid 5, 32–3, 36, 232–3, 246–7
rate 7, 41, 152
regional 176–8, 262, 264
socio-economic impacts 23, 30, 40–1, 59,
152–4, 246
solar induced 147–52
spatial scale 2, 41, 44, 166, 169–70
sub-Milankovich 207
temporal scale 1, 2, 4, 31, 41, 44, 134
time-scale of observation 70
see also abrupt climate change
climate field reconstruction (CFR) approach
166, 171, 182
RegEM CFR 171–2, 173
climate models 1, 3, 9, 82, 98–122, 146
adaptive learning 83
agent based 82–3
automaton type 83
best pseudo-simulation 181, 181
boundary conditions 3, 29, 43, 103–4,
114, 254
calibration 172, 173, 198
chaotic system 98–9, 99
deductive 100–3
deficiencies 163–4
desert solution 236, 238, 239
diagnostic equations 103
ensembles of simulations 170, 170,
180–1
equilibrium 99, 103–4, 235, 235, 238
equilibrium solutions 235–6, 235, 236, 237,
237, 243
external conditions 237, 241
and forcing 166–70
future prediction 106
global 100
green solutions 236, 238, 239
inductive 100–3
initial conditions 3, 103–4, 168–9, 170, 172,
179, 239, 243, 244
mechanisms 244
multiple equilibrium solutions 239, 243,
244, 246, 247
nesting 102–3
nonlinear interactions 98–9, 99
numerical resolution 169
and observations 175, 176–82
parameters 101, 103–4, 106, 109, 173–6,
183, 192
predicted responses 166
present-day conditions 238
probability function 106, 176
prognostic equations 103
reconstruction inputs 168
resolution 112
results tests 163, 169, 176, 264
sensitivity experiments 64, 68, 105, 106,
109, 169, 238, 241, 243, 245
signal to noise ratio (SNR) 172, 173,
180
single forcing 174
spatial scales 101–2
stability diagram 239
statistical downscaling 102
structural uncertainty 101
temporal scales 101–2
tuning 106, 192
unstable system 98–9, 240
variability 170
vegetation coverage 239
zooming 102–3
see also box climate model; comprehensive
models; conceptual models; Earth models
of intermediate complexity
climate reconstruction 4, 5, 7
hemispheric means 171
multiple regression 182
past millennium 163–88
quantitative 26–7
spatial patterns 171
testing methods 171–2
climate research 7–57
bias 8
Holocene 7–57
invisible college effect 8
motivation for 8–9
multi-proxy approach 42
paradigm shifts 7, 8–41
spatial 8
temporal 7–8
climate system
amplitude of variability 246
energy balance 154, 264
energy transport 139
feedback processes 155, 215
internal variability 163, 169–70
local instabilities 241
mechanistic scenario of response 192
natural cooling 33
nonlinear processes 104, 209
physical processes 169
response 31, 70, 131–2, 146–52, 163,
180, 209, 235
response amplitude 175
response delays 70, 189, 192
sensitivity 176, 235, 246
slow components 108–9
stability analysis 235, 236, 245, 246
climate–biosphere models 30
climate-system models 68
climatic optimum see thermal maximum
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CLIMBER-2 model 106, 109, 241, 243
EMIC 114
sensitivity tests 238
cloud formation 68, 99, 155
coccoliths 127
COHMAP CCM 2, 9, 27–30, 38
boundary conditions 28–30, 29
Community Climate Model (CCM) 2, 9,
27–30, 29, 38
Composite Plus Scale (CPS) 165–6, 171
comprehensive models 3, 100–1, 100, 108, 115,
166–7, 241, 243
conceptual models 3, 100, 100, 108–10, 115,
244
Bahn and Flenley 78, 78
Paillard’s 108–10
stability diagram 237
coral records 1, 164, 177, 178, 262
Ba/Ca ratio 214
and ENSO 259
resolution 39
sediment flux 214
cosmic-ray flux 155
cosmogenic isotopes 167
cosmogenic radionuclides 141–2, 143
Croll, James 28
cyclonic incursions 215
Danish forest history 9
Dansgaard–Oeschger events 32
Dark Ages cold episode 217
data
databases 38–9
quality 190
see also archives; historical documentary
records; instrumental data
data assimilation 104–7, 178–82
analysis cycle 179
background field 179
difficulties 180
observation operator 179, 180
observational increment 179
observed variables 179
sequential assimilation 179–80
techniques 179, 182, 183
Data Assimilation Through Upscaling and
Nudging (DATUN) 180–1
data–model comparison 4, 22, 28, 29, 73–4,
98, 104–7, 169, 180–1
Dau, Heinrich, peat studies 9
deep-sea core 26
deforestation 2, 24–5, 33, 41, 58–9, 61
Denmark 60, 62
evapotranspiration 70
human consequences 66
irreversible 60, 65
pollen record 34, 61, 63, 64
progressive 60, 64
rainfall interception 70
spatial extent 34
dendrochronological radiocarbon calibration
curve 192
dendroclimatology 191–2, 204
Denmark, deforestation 60, 62
desert-albedo interaction 246
desert-loess boundary 66
desertification, human response 79
desiccation see aridification
DeVries cycle 142
diatom records 134
temperature reconstruction 113
diatoms 127, 129, 130, 213
disturbance events
legacies of 67
recovery 67, 67
Dongge Cave, China 207, 208–9
speleothem record 214, 217, 262–3, 263
Drivers–Pressure–State–Impact–Response
(DPSIR) concept 82–3
drought 5, 40, 69, 79, 165, 203, 233, 256
Africa 211–12
China 260, 261
episodes 207
frequency 204
index 213
megadrought 214
Mexico 260
recurrence 31, 65, 204–5, 205, 217
remote processes 244
social disruption 260–2
sustained 78
USA 260–2
vegetation reconstructions 212
dust record, monsoon variability 263
early Holocene
carbon dioxide rise 34
moisture balance variation 207–10
thermal optimum 123–37
warming 255–6
Earth, circulation systems 22
Earth orbit 139
cyclical variations 35
Earth system models of intermediate
complexity 5, 100, 101–2, 102, 115, 125,
166, 238, 241, 243
see also CLIMBER-2
Easter Island, population decline 78, 78
ECBILT model 112
ECBILT–CLIO model 113–15
ECBILT–CLIO–VECODE model 114,
168,
174, 175, 181, 239
eccentricity cycle 28, 107, 107, 109, 139
ECHAM-3–BIOME 1.0 model 236
ECHO-G model 168
–9, 168
ecological simulation models 42
ecosystems
equilibrium states 235
future sustainability 83
human impact 81
and precipitation levels 189–90
rapid shifts 233
reconstruction 81
response 81
edaphically sensitive environments 64
effective moisture availability 190
El Niño 4, 112, 263
consequences 260
and explosive volcanism 260
frequency 39–40
response 260
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 42–3,
165, 176, 177–8, 258, 259–62
amplitude 259
atmospheric teleconnections 260
economic impacts 259
future variability 259
proxy records 259
energy balance models 166, 175–6, 240, 255
energy budget 68
environmental determinism 76–7
eolian deposition, marine sediments 207–9
Equator, meteorological 206
equilibrium 99
critical level 235, 235
experiment 103–4
multiple solutions 235, 235, 239, 243, 244,
246, 247
solutions 235–6, 235, 236, 237, 237, 243
threshold 235
unstable 235, 238
erosion 3, 71, 83
anthropogenic 69–72, 214
natural 214
rate 70–2
Europe
flooding episodes 203–4
lake level record 218, 219
land cover and human impact 64–5
moisture balance 193–204
moisture excess 200–1
north-west 193–204
Europe Pollen Data Base 81
European Lake Level database 194, 195, 199,
205
evaporation 215–16
evapotranspiration 204
deforestation 70
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Extended R-value (ERV) model 81
external forcing 29, 44, 104, 111–12, 113, 167,
189, 237, 243
contrasting effects 220
hot spots 233, 235, 245–6, 248
latitudinal effects 220
reconstructions 167
sensitivity to 233
variations in 173
Faegri, Knut 24
feedback 3, 111, 154, 178, 243, 248
amplification factor 155
analysis 106
biogeochemical 248
biogeophysical 248
glaciations 232–3
land-cover change 65
mechanisms 138, 155
positive 234
fires 63, 64–5, 66, 73, 81–2
floods
Europe 203–4
events 70
frequency 203
and irrigation 33
levels 214
records 203–5
fluvial deposition 203, 204
foraminifers 127
habitat 129–31
isotope analyses 35
temperature data 134
forcing factors 41
dated records 254
evidence for 138–62
mechanisms 139–46
and models 166–70
responses to 69–70, 138, 167
role in climate models 173–6
seasonality 29, 126, 129–30, 259
separation of 106
time-scale of changes 141
see also external forcing; natural forcing;
solar forcing; volcanic forcing
forcing fingerprint 175, 182
forcing functions 36
forcing singular vectors 180
forest clearance see deforestation
forest ecosystems
composition 62
management strategy 63
recovery 64
recurrent recovery 60
fossils 30
assemblages 35
pine stumps, Scotland 10
see also macrofossils; megafossils
France, lake-level change 194, 196
freshwater budget 178
freshwater pulse 33, 146, 178, 217, 232
Fritts, Hal 26
garrigue 64
general circulation model (GCM) 177, 255
see also atmosphere–ocean general
circulation models (AOGCMs)
geomagnetic field 142
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
113
Germany, Black Forest 59
glacial inception 98, 109, 110, 110, 115
anthropogenic factors 110
natural evolution 110–11
probability 111
glacial–interglacial cycles 35, 102, 232
glaciations 3, 232–3
glaciers 123, 148–51, 214
advance 36, 196, 198, 212, 215
alpine 193
boundary conditions 206
dating moraines 36, 196, 257
equilibrium line 197
equilibrium line altitudes (ELA) 37
frequency of changes 201
history 36–7
mass balance 132, 193–4, 196–7, 197,
199–201, 217, 257
maximum extent 201, 257
mean ablation 37
meltwater 33, 39
response delay 193
retreat 1, 36
winter precipitation 37
glaciofluvial sediments 198
overbank deposition 196–7
Gleissberg cycle 142
global fire indices 34
global warming 1–6, 99, 258
Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)
115
grand solar minima 142
Granlund, E. 17
Great Aletsch Glacier, Switzerland 196, 197
greenhouse gas forcing 73, 174, 174, 244–5,
248, 255
greenhouse gases 1, 2, 32, 73, 82, 83, 167–8
and agriculture 3
induced warming 155–6
and land-cover change 81, 82
roles of 255
sensitivity experiments 244
Greenland
8.2 ka event 32–3, 217
ice cores 32–3, 217, 218, 259
Norse settlements 78–9
Hadley Cell 154, 155
Hadley Centre climate model 244
Halstatt cycle 142
hazel
geographic limits 12, 13, 17
growing season 17
heathland 60–3, 64
burning 60
climatic factors 63
edaphic factors 63
expansion 60
human factors 63
Heinrich event 206, 216
High Medieval time 257, 260–2
historical documentary records 164, 177, 257
HOLIVAR (Holocene Climate Variability)
initiative 58
Holocene 1–6, 38, 132–4, 256 –8
8.2 ka event 133
850
BC event 4, 153–4
absolute chronologies 25–6
Blytt–Sernander divisions 14–15, 15, 17, 20,
147, 193
chronology linkages 82
climate modeling 98–122
climate research 7–57
climatic phases 35–6
greenhouse gases 74, 75
ocean stability 111–15
paleoresearch role 81–3
pre-industrial 72
predicted length 108–9
role of people 58–97
stability 107–11
thermal maximum 3, 18, 125, 128–9, 130 –2,
135, 215, 241
vegetation changes 72–5
warming trend 128–9
see also early Holocene; late Holocene;
mid-Holocene
Holocene Humid Period 216
hot spots 233, 235
detection methods 245–6, 248
human impact 2–3, 30, 44, 58–97, 163
on ecosystems 59–68
global 264
water quality 67–8
human societies
adaptive behaviors 80
and climate change 23, 38, 40–1, 75–80, 256
cultural collapse factors 77–9, 83
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cultural demise 40, 79–80, 207, 233
migration 79, 152, 154, 247
population density 66, 152–3
and precipitation levels 189–90
response strategies 77
structure change 152
technological responses 79
vulnerability level 80
human–climate interactions 40–1
modeling 80
human–environment interactions 82–3
scope and significance 58–9
hydrographic data 129–30
hydrologic balance 40, 68–9, 152
hydrologic cycle 3, 154
hydrologic records
century scale 197
extreme events 203
high resolution 208–9
proxy records 190, 191–2
regional integration 193–214
hydrologic regime 31, 38, 72, 83
hydrologic variability 31, 65, 191, 257,
264
century scale 207–12, 216–19, 218
disparate records 207
Europe and Africa 215–19
flood records 203–5
frequency 192
human impact on 69–72
late Holocene 210–12
latitudinal linkages 189–231
long term 203–5
millennial scale 205–6, 217
north-west Europe 191, 193–204
pattern between archives 199–201
precessional forcing 215–16
and precipitation 258–64
regional 31, 219, 256, 262
spatial scale 31, 215–19
temporal scale 4–5, 31, 199, 215–19
Ice Age theory 11–12
Ice-core records
Antarctic 1
data 143
Greenland 217, 218
monsoon variability 263
resolution 39
volcanic forcing 143–6
ice cores 32, 123, 141–2, 164, 177
acidity 32
air bubbles 33
greenhouse gas concentrations 32
isotopic variation 4, 259
mineral dust 32
research 32–3
sulphate 32, 145, 146
ice-rafted debris 134, 150, 151, 203, 204, 207,
217, 218, 263
periodicity 35–6
ice volume 29, 32, 109
Imbrie, John 26
India, cultural changes 66
Indian monsoon 214, 216
impact on humans 263
speleothem records 217
indicator species 23–4, 42, 59, 129, 144
insolation 28, 38, 130, 207–8, 219
annual mean 108, 127
anomalies 131–2
distribution 107, 107
forcing 206, 209–10, 233
latitudinal variation 140, 140, 215, 234
seasonal 3, 29, 134, 135, 211, 215,
255–6
see also eccentricity cycle; obliquity cycle;
orbital forcing; precessional cycle; solar
activity; solar irradiance
instrumental data 191–2, 197–8, 202, 254, 262,
264
annual resolution 201
key climatic time series 255
rainfall 204
integrated impact assessment 82
interglacial 34
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC 2001) 156
intermediate model see Earth system models of
intermediate complexity
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ),
position of 206, 207, 216, 217–19, 220
IPSL model (Institut Pierre et Simon Laplace)
106
Iron Age, hydrologic change 79
irrigation systems 72
iso-chrone maps 25
Italy 63, 64
Iversen, Johs 23–4, 24
Jamieson, Thomas F. 18, 18
jet stream 177
Karlén, W. 36–7
Kullman, L. 19
La Niña 178, 262
lake carbon reservoir ages 205
lake catchment systems 67
lake-level change 150, 194–6, 217
chronological control 194, 195, 205
latitudinal analysis 194, 195
millennial scale 194
tree-stump dating 194
lake sediment records 1, 30, 36
–7, 69, 123,
148–51, 164, 193, 206, 207, 208–9, 213,
215
Africa 206
buffering effect 207–10
catchment size 70
core sites 124, 124
data resolution 194–6
desiccation 210
and ENSO 259
extreme events 31
and flood frequency 203
and glacier mass balance 199–200
and peat wetness 199
resolution 39
scores 197
stratigraphic studies 194
and total erosion 70
yield 70, 71
land-cover change 2, 40, 41, 58–9, 167, 174,
174, 233, 264
Africa 233–41
anthropogenic 62, 66, 244
biogeophysical feedbacks 233
carbon cycle 67
chronology of 59, 82
degree of 59
evidence and theory 232–53
feedbacks 65, 81, 83
future 82, 244–5
greenhouse gas concentrations 81, 82
impact on climate 68–9
and pollen data 81
pre-industrialization 69
rapid 232–53
rate 167–8
recovery time-scales 67, 67
land-cover type
inferred 68–9, 81
pollen-based reconstructions 60, 82
land-cover–climate-feedback modeling 69
Last Glacial Maximum 28, 77, 206, 236–8,
236
Late Cenozoic Ice Ages 108
late Holocene
glacier variations 257
moisture balance 189–231
Laurentide Ice Sheet 124, 135, 146
Little Ice Age 4, 36, 37, 78, 178, 201, 217, 220,
257
Africa 212–14
hydrologic variations 212–13, 214
phases 212–13, 214
LLN-2D model 109, 110
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McAndrews, J.H. 26
macrofossils 9–19, 234
plant 205
temperature change 11–14
Mapungubwe society, drought 79
Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 73, 75, 108, 109
marine sediments 1, 123, 151, 208–9, 239
core research 3, 35–6
core sites 124, 124
data resolution 39
eolian deposition 207–9
and monsoon intensity 207
Maya culture, Yucatan 79, 212, 256
Medieval Warm Period 169, 175, 178, 211–12,
220, 260–2
equivalent drought 212
Mediterranean ecosystems 63
Mediterranean type climate 63–4
megafossils 9–19
Mesolithic cultures 65
methane concentration 32
changes 33–5
feedback 109
and human activity 33–5
and land use changes 40
natural trend 74
observed trend 74
sources 43, 74, 75
Mexico 256
mega drought 260
mid-Holocene
climate 236–8, 236
model experiments 244
thermal maximum 125, 128–9
Middle Ages 64
Milankovitch, Milutin 22, 28
Ming Dynasty, social disruption 260–2
minimal models 237, 246
MIT–EMIC (Michigan Institute of
Technology–Earth System Model of
Intermediate Complexity) 125, 127
MoBidiC model 241, 242, 243
model results
analysis 183
forecast 179
uncertainties 179
model simulations, and proxy data
163–88
model variables, perturbations to 180
model–data comparison 4, 22, 28, 29, 73–4,
98, 104–7
cost function 180–1
discrepancies 106
hemispheric scale 169
MODIS 69
moisture balance see hydrologic variability
monsoon system 151, 206, 257, 263
amplification 234
box climate model 238
dust record 263
dynamics 206
ice core records 263
intensity 39–40, 154, 207–10, 208–9, 211,
216, 217, 219
multiple forcing factors 264
origin 216
rainfall record 262–3, 263
speleothem records 207–10
multiproxy data 177
reconstructions 257–8
studies 190, 203
Nathorst, Alfred Gabriel, Swedish macrofossils
10–11
natural forcing 138, 163, 167, 255
Neolithic Age 64
Neolithic culture 247, 263
Netherlands, landscape development 152, 153
Niño3 index 165
North Africa
atmospheric CO
2
concentrations 244
climate models 235–6, 245, 247
equilibrium solutions 235–6, 243
green-desert conditions 239–40
land-cover change 233–41, 247
rainfall variability 239–40
terrigenous sediment 234
vegetation variation 239–40
North Atlantic
1500 year cycle 217–19
advection 131
cold events 217, 220
overturning circulation 33
thermal optimum 123–37
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 4, 37, 112,
131, 132, 165, 176, 177, 178, 201, 213, 258
Northern Hemisphere
insolation 234
temperature 4, 254–5
Norway, glacial patterns 37
Norwegian Sea, advection 131
numerical models 179
obliquity cycle 28, 107–8, 107, 139
ocean 3, 112, 129
advection 112–13
buffering effect 257
carbon ratio 151
circulation 33, 112, 115, 132, 134, 178, 219,
232
convection 3, 113–15, 114
deep dynamics 103, 126
effective diffusivity 176
Holocene stability 111–15
salinity 26, 33, 112, 232
surface density 114, 178
water temperature 129, 130, 134
see also thermocline
ocean system
delayed response 174–5
orbital forcing 126–32
oscillations 146
Ocean Weather Station M 129, 130
ocean–atmosphere models 112, 125
ocean–atmosphere system 98
nonlinear 111
oscillatory modes 111–12
ocean–atmosphere–cryosphere–biosphere
system 98–9
orbital forcing 3, 22, 28–9, 31, 44, 73, 105, 109,
112, 114, 124, 132, 134, 135, 139–40,
167–8, 233, 236, 258, 259, 263
atmospheric circulation 108
changes in 140, 262
climate model response 125–6
early Holocene 255–6
long term 256–7
ocean responses 126–32
precipitation 108
sea-surface temperature 125
seasonality 131
temperature changes 108
see also eccentricity cycle; insolation;
obliquity cycle; precessional cycle
Orkney, heathland 63
oxygen isotope records 39–40, 127, 128, 131,
151, 197–8, 200, 208–9, 214
ozone concentration 4, 141
ozone production 155
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 43, 165
PAGES (Past Global Changes) 37–8, 58
PAGES–PANASH Europe–Africa transect 190
Paillard’s conceptual model 108–10
paleoceanography 26
Paleoclimates Modeling Intercomparison
Project (PMIP) 104, 105, 125, 132
paleoclimatic studies, fine resolution 39–40
paleoecologic data 41, 42
paleohydrology 30–1
data chronology precision 192–3
data integration 190, 192
proxy indicators calibration 191–2
paleolimnology 30–1
peat deposits 1, 2, 73, 147–8, 148, 192
humification 19, 198
methane 34–5
precipitation 147, 149
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species composition 147, 149
temperature 147, 149
peat stratigraphy 9–19, 10, 31, 69, 193
chronology 15, 16, 25, 147
correlation 15, 16
recurrent surfaces 17
resolution 39
wet and dry layers 14
peat-surface wetness 197, 198–9, 215, 218, 219
decade-scale resolution 202
and glacier mass balance 199–200
and lake-level data 199
PEP (Pole–Equator–Pole) transects 37–8, 58
perihelion 108
see also precession cycle
Polar Circulation Index (PCI) 150
POLLANDCAL initiative 81
pollen analysis 2, 8, 17, 19–25, 125, 242
African data 210, 212
diagrams 60, 61, 62, 63, 64
human impact 23
identification 24
indicator species 23–4
iso-pollen maps 25
methodology 23, 24
past climate 19–20
past vegetation 19–20, 81, 210
pollen zones 20, 25–6
relative dating 19–20
stratigraphy 20, 21
taxonomy 59
Post, Lennart von 17–18, 19–23, 20
Praeger, Robert Lloyd 18
Pre-Boreal oscillation 33
precessional cycle 28, 107–8, 107, 139, 206
forcing 109, 219, 259
precessional forcing 215–16
precipitation 17, 68, 70, 132, 133, 134, 189, 190,
201, 258–64
annually resolved changes 201–3
global distribution 189
indices 201, 202
multidecadal patterns 201–2
North Africa 239–40
orbital forcing 108
past 500 years 201–3
and peat deposits 147
regional scale 258–9
seasonality 43–4, 197, 198, 201–2, 202,
204
time-scales of variations 17, 189–90
tree-ring correlation 201–2
water balance 256
precipitation/evaporation record 209
pressure, sea level 165
proglacial lakes 36–7
proxy data 29, 104, 164–6, 183, 193
annually resolved 201–3, 202
archive comparisons 190
and calibration 191, 192
change determinant 193
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 259
hydrologic 193–214
indicators 129, 166, 191–2, 193, 198, 204
integration 190–3, 203
interpretation of 164
model parameters 173–6
and model simulations 163–88
noise 172
precipitation changes 201–3
regional integration 193–214
resolution 164, 180
seasonal bias 202, 204
stationarity of response 166, 192
pseudo-proxy records 166, 172, 173, 182
model derived 171–2
radiation balance 139, 246, 247
radiative forcing 69, 124, 131–2, 167, 167,
177–8
radiocarbon
calibration curve 147
dating 2, 19, 25–6, 42, 147, 192, 198–9, 234
and solar activity 148
rainfall see precipitation
rice cultivation 33, 73
Ruddiman’s hypothesis 33–4, 73–5, 75
Sahara 79
arid episodes 233
climate trends 238–9
dust transport 238
expansion 233, 234, 238, 239, 247
greening 233–4, 235, 238, 243, 244, 247
land-cover changes 235
marine sediment record 239
rainfall origin 216
vegetation 208–9, 239, 240, 245
Sahel 233
desertification time-scale 69
vegetation and pollen data 210
Saltzman’s model 108
Samuelsson, G. 17
savannah 65
Scandinavia
ice sheet 215
peat stratigraphy 19
Schwabe cycle 4, 141, 142
sclerosponge series 164
Scythian culture 153
sea-ice cover 3, 134, 209, 215, 219
albedo 131–2
sea-level changes 16
sea-surface temperature 26, 29, 35– 6, 69,
114
, 209, 256
advection 135
alkenone data 126, 128
anomaly patterns 125, 132, 215, 263
calibration 130
orbital forcing 125, 127
reconstructions 126
–31, 128
thermal maximum 135
upwelling 216
see also thermocline
sediment 30
colour 35, 37
grain size 35
organic content 37
paleomagnetism 31
stable isotope analyses 31
yield 70
–2
sensitivity experiments 64, 68, 105, 106, 109,
169, 238, 241, 243, 245
Sernander, Rutger 14–17, 15, 16, 17
Siberia 241
850
BC event 153
cultural development 153
snow accumulation 198
snowball Earth events 232–3
soil
organic carbon 34, 73
water content 68
solar activity 140–3, 144, 148–51, 154–5, 156,
259–60, 262
11-year cycle 155
amplification mechanisms 156
and atmospheric carbon 196
and moisture 5
record 141–2
see also insolation
solar constant 141
solar forcing 39, 44, 138–62, 174, 174, 176,
258, 259
amplifying process 218–20
and atmospheric
14
C record 217, 218, 219
detection of 258
nonproportional response 219
solar irradiance 4, 167–8, 167, 174, 177, 177,
258, 259–60
see also spectral solar irradiance; total solar
irradiance
solar luminosity 139
solar magnetic field 141, 143
solar modulation function 142, 143, 150
solar wind 142
South America, climate models 244
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) 165
species see indicator species
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spectral solar irradiance (SSI) 141
speleothem records 123, 164, 193, 197–8, 197
Africa 212
band thickness 200
calibration 197–8
Dongge Cave 207, 208–9, 214, 217, 262–3,
263
and glacier mass balance 200
monsoon intensity 207–10, 217
resolution 39–40
see also stalagmites
stable isotope analysis 31, 32, 73–4
see also oxygen isotope records
stacked record 199
stalagmites 151
annual band thickness 198
calcite 39–40, 214
oxygen isotope record 39–40, 208–9
see also speleothem records
Steenstrup, Japetus, Danish forest history 9, 11
steppe landscapes 63, 153
Stommel’s box model 112
stratosphere 258
volcanic forcing 143–5
Sudan, climate variability stresses 78
Suess cycle 142
sulfates 167, 167
sulfur dioxide, sources 143–5
sun see insolation; solar activity; solar
irradiance
sunspot number 141
Sweden 14–18, 19
deforestation 60, 62
lake-level change 194
tectonic activity 69
temperature 17, 68, 164–5, 256
annual mean 105, 125, 168, 168, 173, 174,
175, 177
CO
2
concentration 176
global mean 165–6, 256
growing season 17
hemispheric 165–6, 174–5, 175, 254–5
indicator species 23–4
low-frequency change 258
and macrofossils 11–14
multi-proxy reconstructions 257–8
ocean–continent contrast 216
orbital forcing 108
and peat deposits 147
regional changes 165, 262
seasonality 43–4, 170, 181
thermal maximum 3, 18, 123–37, 125, 128 –9,
130, 215, 241, 244
poleward amplification 123–4, 125,
131–2, 135
thermocline 126, 129–30, 131, 134, 135,
219
thermohaline circulation 112, 232
tilt cycle see obliquity cycle
time-series calibration 191
time-series regression 191
Toronto climate–ice-sheet model 109
total solar irradiance (TSI) 141, 156
transfer functions 2, 26–7, 31, 37, 42,
126–7, 191
transient experiment 103–4
tree rings 1, 4, 10, 26, 142, 143, 151–2, 164, 177,
193, 203, 239
cellulose stable isotope composition 204,
205
precipitation 201–2
regional curve standardization 152
resolution 39
width 151–2, 205
troposphere
circulation 4, 141, 258
volcanic forcing 143–5
upwelling 123, 174–5
sea-surface temperatures 216
USA, drought 260–2
Vaupell, Christian, pine megafossils 10,
12
vegetation
and atmospheric CO
2
72–5, 245
and atmospheric methane 72–5
climate thresholds 248
fraction 236, 245
human impact 23, 24–5
reconstructions 212
zones 26, 215
see also agriculture; land cover change; land
cover type
vegetation–atmosphere interaction 82, 209
vegetation–precipitation feedback 237, 237
volcanic forcing 154, 167–8, 174, 175, 177–8,
177, 258, 259, 260
atmospheric processes 145, 258, 260
high-frequency changes 262
ice cores 143–6
quantification 145
sulfate concentration 32, 143–5, 146
volcanism 44, 167, 258, 260
water-stress reconstruction 204–5, 205
water table
century-scale changes 219
compilation 202–3
depth 198
water vapor flux 68
weather forecasting 170, 179–80
Webb, Tom 26–7
West Africa
bistability 244
land-cover changes 240–1
multiple equilibria 240–1, 244
vegetation–climate changes 240–1
woodland see forest
xerophytic scrub 63
Younger Dryas episode 206, 216, 257
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