This ‘boom-slump’ sequence can be seen clearly between 1815 and 1850. The French Wars led to a buoyant economy and
prosperity mounted steadily from 1811 after Napoleon’s continental blockade broke up. For over thirty years the British
economy had been subject to a powerful growth stimulus. Industrial output increased rapidly. Agriculture and trade expanded.
Between 1815 and 1820 there was a period of readjustment to peacetime conditions. A short post-war boom as exports of
cotton goods, hardware and iron were rushed to starved markets ended in 1818 and the economy plunged into depression
reaching its nadir in 1819. Agriculture did not have the benefit of this boom and prices fell disastrously for the already heavily
mortgaged farmers. The response—the Corn Law of 1815 —did not resolve the farmers’ dilemma of how to cope with being
wedged between falling prices and fixed costs. Profitable outlets for investment almost ceased to exist and, despite long-term
interest rates falling, there was insufficient incentive for businessmen to embark on new ventures.
By 1821 there were real signs of a general recovery which lasted until the mid-1830s. Industrial output accelerated and
investment, both abroad and at home, went on continuously. Exports expanded. This growth was, however, not without its
problems. Its tentative nature in the 1820s was clearly demonstrated in the financial crisis of 1825 and in the loss of economic
confidence in 1829 and 1831, a result of poor harvests in 1828 and 1830. From 1832 to 1836 there was heavy investment at
home in railway shares, and exports were boosted by loans to America which stimulated Anglo-American trade.
Between 1815 and 1836 it had become increasingly clear that continued expansion for British industry depended on stable
foreign markets. Between 1836 and 1842 there was an intense depression which began in industry, was deepened after the
severe financial crisis of 1839 and exacerbated by unpredictable harvests. Heavy grain imports were necessary, especially in
1838 and 1839, with the consequent loss of gold abroad and monetary stringency at home. Declining foreign investment,
particularly in America, further depressed trade. Revival after 1842 was led by investment in transportation and by the
removal of tariff control by Peel’s government, creating conditions in which growth could occur.
The swings of the trade cycle took place within a rising long-term trend. Over-capacity was ultimately absorbed by a
growing population and a growing demand coming from a rising national income. Short-term expansion was an unstable
affair of boom and slump, inflation and deflation. Yet, as Peter Mathias argues ‘At every point the problems of short-run
economic fluctuations rested upon the fundamental forces operating for long-run economic expansion.’
19
CONCLUSIONS
The traditional views of the industrial revolution have recently been re-examined and a picture of the economic changes of the
eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries based on growth ‘in slow motion’ have been re-emphasized. Certain questions still
need to be considered. How far did unequal development in England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland affect the ‘revolutionary’
nature of the changes in the industrial economy? Is an approach through interconnected studies of defined regions more
valuable than through nation states? What was the balance between traditionally organized and forward-looking industries?
Reinterpretation of a historical phenomenon of such importance as the industrial revolution will occur in each succeeding
generation as new perspectives are examined, regional studies are produced and chronologies and causations adjusted.
Economists may want to learn lessons from the past but they should reflect on the prognosis made by the Italian historian
Croce that ‘the only lesson that we learn from the past is that we learn no lessons from the past’.
NOTES
1 Leopold von Ranke ‘The Great Powers’, in G.G.Iggers and K.von Moltke (eds) The Theory and Practice of History, Indianapolis
University Press, 1973, p. 100.
2 H.Perkin in The Origins of Modern English Society 1780–1880, Routledge, 1969, pp. 3–5.
3 The history of the expression ‘industrial revolution’ can be examined in Sir George Clark The Idea of the Industrial Revolution,
Glasgow, 1953.
4 The voluminous historiography of the industrial revolution can be best approached through M.W.Flinn Origins of the Industrial
Revolution, Longman, 1966, pp. 1–18, G.G.Iggers New Directions in European Historiography, Methuen, 1985, pp. 154–74 and
J.Mokyr (ed.) The Economics of the Industrial Revolution, Allen and Unwin, 1985, pp. 1–52, especially 3–6. E.A.Wrigley Continuity,
Chance and Change. The Character of the Industrial Revolution in England, Cambridge University Press, 1988, is a major
revisionist study.
5 T.Carlyle ‘Signs of the Times’ (1829), in A.Shelston (ed.) Thomas Carlyle— Selected Writings, Penguin, 1971, pp. 64–5.
6 William Blake Poems and Prophecies, Dent, 1972, pp. 238–9.
7 R.W.Fogel and G.R.Elton Which Road to the Past?, Yale University Press, 1983, p. 19.
8 E.Le Roy Ladurie The Peasants of Languedoc, University of Illinois Press, 1966, p. 289.
9 M.Berg The Age of Manufactures 1700–1820, Fontana, 1985, p. 23.
10 A.E.Musson The Growth of British Industry, Batsford, 1978, pp. 252–3, 141.
THE ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS—AN OVERVIEW 153