
spinal damage, these cases tended to be identified as
sacroiliitis or spondylitis (AS). These cases were dis-
tinguished in a separate category because AS is readily
diagnosed as a distinct entity in the HLA-B27-
associated spondyloathropathies. Two additional cat-
egories were used to capture other types of chronic or
recurrent symptoms. These included cases in which
symptoms manifested as periodic flare-ups, and cases
in which there was chronic joint pain not associated
with the back. Approximately 40% of cases in this
node involve minor or recurrent symptoms. Sixty per
cent of the cases are more severe or chronic joint
inflammation, divided approximately equally be-
tween those that show radiologic evidence of spine
and lower back inflammation and those having
inflammation of other joints.
Conclusions
0034 The disease-outcome tree is a useful tool for eco-
nomic evaluation that establishes estimates for the
likelihood of various arthritic sequelae following an
outbreak of foodborne bacterial illness. The path-
ways are based on reported patterns of clinical dis-
ease. The estimates are necessarily inexact, because of
limitations of the available data. The estimates are
based on incidence data that were all derived from
outbreaks of foodborne illness. It is possible that the
incidence of arthritis following sporadic cases might
be different than the incidence associated with out-
breaks. The use of outbreaks might be biased toward
more virulent pathogen strains. At present, there is no
information on the incidence of ReA following spor-
adic foodborne illness. An active surveillance system
for foodborne illnesses such as FoodNet may prove to
be an excellent mechanism from which to determine
the incidence of ReA in sporadic illness and to con-
duct long-term follow-ups for progressive or chronic
joint disease. As more definitive data become avail-
able, the disease-outcome tree can be updated and
modified.
003 5 The next issue is the economic valuation method
used. The Economic Research Service’s annual food-
borne illness cost estimates use a cost-of-illness ap-
proach for illnesses and a willingness-to-pay (WTP)
approach for premature deaths. CFSAN has routinely
used the value of QALYs lost in its regulatory impact
analyses of food safety regulations. To date, no stand-
ardized method has been chosen by the economic
profession. Ongoing research is developing WTP esti-
mates for morbidity outcomes. In comparison with
cost-of-illness approaches for chronic sequelae, such
as arthritis, both the WTP and QALY estimates can
substantially increase the economic valuation. The
reason is the more comprehensive nature of these
estimates that include an implicit valuation for pain
and suffering, lost leisure time, and other implicit
costs that are not included in the cost of illness esti-
mates based on medical costs, productivity losses,
and other out-of-pocket costs.
0036In the disease-outcome tree developed here, around
8% of the cases of salmonellosis can be expected to
develop reactive arthritis. Forty per cent of the react-
ive athritis cases will fully recover. The remaining
60% can be expected to have recurring episodes of
varying severity (40% mild/intermittent joint pain,
30% severe joint pain, 30% spondylitis). In summary,
the disease-outcome tree encompasses all the possible
lifetime consequences of those in the US population
who have been exposed to foodborne pathogens. The
tree predicts that on average, 92% of acute cases will
have a full recovery; 3.2% will have full recovery
with reactive arthritis symptoms for a few weeks;
1.9% will have lifelong mild, intermittent joint pain;
1.4% will have a lifelong progression to severe joint
pain; and 1.4% of cases will have a lifelong progres-
sion to spondylitis. Valuation of avoiding just the pain
and suffering associated with these arthritic outcomes
can be expected to be significant. An early study by
Thompson suggested that those afflicted would give
up 22% of their household income to be rid of
rheumatoid arthritis. The disease-outcome tree en-
compasses all the possible lifetime consequences of
those in the U.S. population who have been exposed
to foodborne pathogens. The life-long nature and
severity of many chronic sequelae, such as arthritis,
indicate that these will make substantial contribu-
tions to the estimates of the cost of foodborne illness.
See also: Campylobacter: Properties and Occurrence;
Escherichia coli: Food Poisoning; Food Poisoning by
Species other than Escherichia coli; Food Poisoning:
Classification; Tracing Origins and Testing; Statistics;
Listeria: Listeriosis; Salmonella: Properties and
Occurrence; Shigella; Yersinia enterocolitica:
Properties and Occurrence
Further Reading
Council for Agricultural Science and Technology (CAST)
(1994) Foodborne Pathogens: Risk and Consequences,
Task Force Report 122 (cochairs, Foegeding PM and
Roberts T). Ames, IA: CAST.
Economic Research Service (2001) United States Depart-
ment of Agriculture http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/
FoodborneDisease/.
Food and Drug Administration (2001) Hazard Analysis and
Critical Control Point (HAACP); Procedures for the
Safe and Sanitary Processing and Importing of Juice;
Final Rule, 66 Federal Register 6138–6202, esp. pp.
6179–6194 (January 19).
FOOD POISONING/Economic Implications 2681