
As a plant’s capacity increases, the accompanying larger
-
- -
and more varied electrical end uses may require more
sophisticated and costly governing and protective
devices. Transmission might have to be considered,
depending on the size and the layout of the villages that
will be supplied by these plants. To date, low costs have
been maintained because only rudimentary protective
devices have been used and no governing devices
or
transmission has been necessary.
How nontechnical aspects will affect the implementa-
tion of larger schemes is uncertain. Village leaders
established in the community have been instrumental in
initiating and managing the small ATDO schemes.
Additionally, these schemes have been implemented
with substantial input and commitments from the local
community, whose bond to these leaders often has been
based on a time-proven trust. These factors have
reduced cost markedly and increased the viability of the
projects. But for larger schemes, this raises several
questions:
s Is this possible for larger schemes which will
cover
a
broader geographical area and probably include
several villages? Is it possible to find a homogeneity
of interest and willingness to work together as a
larger group?
a How large, and increasingly complex, a system can
an untrained person manage and still operate effec-
tively?
l
Would this require additional financial, managerial,
and technical assistance, which would not be as
readily available at the village level?
Near Gilgit in the Northern Areas, the ATDO is imple-
menting a 50 kW hydropower scheme, a size signifi-
cantly larger than those previously installed. Its experi-
ences with this scheme should provide insights into the
problems that might be encountered in implementing
and managing larger schemes and the costs incurred.
Benefit to the rural sector
A basic question is whether micro-hydropower plants
really improve the lives of the rural poor: Are the
“rich” the real beneficiaries? Is electricity a luxury, a
projection of the needs of urban-based planners on the
rural population? Does it make the poor more depend-
ent on forces largely outside their control
for
access to
the necessary end-use appliances and expertise to main-
tain both the system and the appliances?
The ATDO method of implementing schemes relies on a
few persons to initiate, coordinate, and manage the
entire undertaking. However, these persons, by virtue
of their economic or other standing, are apt to benefit
more from the villager contributions to the scheme,
both financial and labor. Are the villagers assisting the
“rich in getting richer” at their expense, or are they
reaping actual benefits in proportion to their inputs?
Can a villager withdraw from the system, if he so
decides, without any net loss to himself? Over time,
might the manager gradually manage the scheme to his
own end on the pretext that the villagers have already
reaped benefits commensurate with their original con-
tributions, both physical and monetary? Although these
are possibilities, there is no indication that these con-
cerns are warranted for the ATDO-implemented micro-
hydropower schemes.
Because the poor often live just beyond a subsistence
level, they may be conservative, hesitant to accept new
ideas that might compromise their already
precarious
economic position. But the villagers do tap onto the
electricity system at the ATDO sites and seem willing
to continue paying the monthly tariff, a fact which pre-
sumably indicates that they believe it is to their advan-
tage.
Assuming the schemes continue to be managed equita-
bly, are the stated villager benefits, primarily electri-
city for lighting, actually net benefits? If electricity
replaces kerosene
or
wood previously used for the same
purpose, any net benefit can be determined fairly easily,
because a cash value can be assigned to it. If newly
introduced lighting contributes to increased income-
generating productivity, then net benefits can be
determined fairly easily. But if electricity is used
because it is now avrilable,
whereas
nothing was used
previously, the conclusion is not clear-cut. The villager
will incur a new expense and will require additional
income to cover it.
Social and other benefits derived
from
electrification
that have no direct cash value may be sufficient ration-
ale for implementing a subsidized scheme.
However,
this is a luxury not afforded self-supporting schemes,
which must cover the costs they incur.
Replication in other countries
The approach undertaken by the ATDO in Pakistan pro-
vides an attractive alternative, given the prevailing
trend of high cost per installed kilowatt for small-
hydropower schemes around the world. However, two
points must be stressed:
s The low costs described in this case study are for
micro-hydropower plants with an output of 5-15 kW.
Until plants with higher capacities are operational,
it would be unwise to extrapolate from the experi-
ences gained to date and to assume that the costs of
hydropower schemes would remain low for plants of
greater capacity--that may or may not be the case.
Further work in the field is necessary before this
assumption can be substantiated.
l
Before it is assumed that such an approach and its
low costs can be replicated elsewhere, even for
installations of small capacity, the factors that have
been instrumental in reducing the costs of the
ATDO-assisted schemes should be considered. Some
of these aspects are more easily replicated outside
Pakistan than others.
Case studies 261