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CHAPTER  6.  STRUCTURED  REASONING 
b) if K; is any set,  R  a  3-place relation on P(~),  and R  satisfies  Gp, is there then 
/2 and a probability measure 
Pu 
: 5~  --+ [0, 1] and a bijection f  : K~  --~/2 such 
that  < 
A  IB  [ C  >R  +-+  <  f[A]  ] f[B]  l f[C ] 
>pu? 
We shall  henceforth assume  X  to be finite, and E  =  W(X).  P  on E  will  also be 
said to be on X, and also called a probability variable.  P  is called strictly positive 
iif 
P(A) 
=  0 ~  A =  (~. For x  E X, we shall also write P(x) for P({x}). Moreover, 
the notation P  : X  -+  [0, 1]  is justified, as E  is fixed by X,  and  P(Y) for Y  C_C_ X 
is  determined by the values on the singletons -  as  any Y  C_ X  is countable, even 
finite, and by b.  above. 
Fact  6.47  Let  Xi  :  i  <  n  (n  <  co)  be finite  sets,  P~  : 
X;  -+ 
[0, 1]  probability 
measures, then there is a  (unique) probability measure P  : [I{Xi : i  <  n} --+ [0, 1] 
on the product defined by P(a0...x~-l):=  P(<  z0...x~-I  >)  := 
Po(xo) *...  * 
Conversely, if a  probability measure P  : II{Xi  : i  <  n}  --~  [0, 1]  is given, m  C__  n, 
m  =  {j,...jk},  then  P~(xj~ ...zjk )  := 2{P(xjl 
...zj~x~l...z~,):  z~  < X~,i,. 
n  -  m}  (suitably  reordered)  defines  a  probability  measure  on  11{&  : j  Em}. 
We shall abuse notation by writing P  for P~ too - the context will disambiguate. 
In particular,  for  P  : 
XzY  -~ 
[0, 1], 
x  E  X,  y  E  Y,  P(z  I Y) 
will mean 
pyre)  = 
PI~,~)  P(~,_l 
P({<xt,y>:xtEX-~  =  ~{P(xt,y):xtEX} 
Definition  6.48  Let X, Y  etc.  be variables. 
a)  Expressions like 
P(X  I Y)  =  P(X  I Y, Z) 
are to be understood as universally 
quantified, i.e.  Vx E 
fiX, y  C 1-IY, z  E UZ.P(x  l Y) =  P(x  l Y, z). 
b) By P[X] we mean {< 
:c',P(x) 
>: z  E IIX}, likewise 
P[X  I Y] 
:= {< 
x,y,P(x  ] 
y) >: x  r 
IIX, y 
E UY}, etc. 
c)  Likewise,  for  X  =  {X~...X~}  a  set  of  variables, 
P[X] 
is  to  be  read 
PiXy,..., 
X~] etc. 
In  Section  6.2.2,  various  independence  relations  are  discussed  (this  is  material 
fl'om  Chapter  3  of  [Pea88]):  in  Section  6.2.2.1  those  defined  from  probability 
measures,  in  Section 6.2.2.2  independence defined by undirected graphs,  and in 
Section  6.2.2.3  independence  as  given  by  directed  acyclic  graphs  (causal  net- 
works).  In Section 6.2.3 we go into the details of computing probability functions 
in  directed  acyclic graphs:  The task  is  -  essentially  -  to  compute a  probability 
measure  on  the  product  of the  vertices from tocal  conditional probabilities  be- 
tween parents  and children in the graph, using the independence relations given 
by the graph.  (The prerequisites and the result  are made precise before Lemma 
6.63  and in  Corollary 6.64.)  More precisely, we  are interested in  computing the 
conditional probability 
P(x  I e), 
where z is a value on some node X, and e is a set 
of values on a  set of nodes E. In the rest of Section 6.2.3, we reconstruct Pearl's 
method (Chapter 4 in [Pea88]) of computing 
P(x 
I e) in singly connected directed 
acyclic graphs by local computations and message passing.  The situation is made 
precise before Definition 6.65,  and the results  are summarized  following Lemma 
6.71.