making the incredible claim that he had defeated 131 German divisions with “less
than half that number of British divisions” in 1917. “What a lie!” was Wilson’s
retort.
61
Furthermore, Macdonogh, who held Charteris’s optimistic arithmetic in
contempt, backed his ridiculous estimate of approximately 1,000,000 German
casualties on the British front in 1917.
62
With general headquarters and the War
Office claiming in effect that one British division was equal to two German
divisions, how could the British Expeditionary Force claim to be in peril in 1918?
Besides the quibbling over numbers, there was a deeper and more profound
difference between the civil and military authorities: the civilians emphasized
maintaining Britain’s economic strength and the military authorities focused their
attention almost exclusively on the maintenance of Britain’s military strength.
This question of priorities, faced by every government engaged in total war, was
well stated by Hankey in a note for the new committee. He noted that the ministers
face a situation which differs in two very important particulars from that
which has confronted previous Cabinet Committees on the same subject.
These are, first: the economic crisis instead of being a danger to be guarded
against, is actually present: and, second: that the seriousness of the military
man-power crisis is not merely that we shall not smash the enemy if the men
are not forthcoming, but that the enemy may smash us.
The problem that confronts the Committee, therefore, is to avert a military
catastrophe without plunging us into an economic catastrophe equally fatal
to the cause of the Allies.
63
At the heart of this conflict was the War Cabinet’s conviction that victory was not
possible in 1918. Consequently, Britain should limit her losses in 1918 by
maintaining an active defense while American troops flowed across the Atlantic,
giving the Allies the necessary military muscle to defeat the German army in 1919
or 1920. In the interim, food must be grown, ships built to transport American
divisions across the Atlantic, and poison-gas shells, tanks, and airplanes produced
as an alternative to human-wave attacks to break the stalemate. Furthermore,
British finances depended upon maintaining the export industries. Economic
collapse might release a tidal wave of defeatism across the country.
To conserve British manpower, the ministers were interested in adopting French
tactics, which employed artillerymen in equal or greater numbers than infantry.
Anthoine’s six divisions in the Flanders offensive had suffered only 8,525
casualties and impressive local successes had been gained at Verdun and La
Malmaison with small loss. Also, the French did not conduct constant raids of
enemy trenches in quiet sectors, a common practice on the British front. Many
ministers believed that the difference in British and French tactics was reflected
in the anticipated wastage for the two armies in 1918, French wastage being
considerably below that predicted for the British army (over 1,000,000). On
December 10, Lloyd George, stunned by this huge figure, ordered Hankey to write
Clemenceau, requesting information on the apparently “cheap” methods of
THE SUPREME WAR COUNCIL AND BRITISH MILITARY PLANS FOR 1918 227