Rawlinson that he was “fairly satisfied with the man power” and would be able
to keep the British army “up to strength if we do not lose more than another 50,
000 men before the offensive stops for the year.”
92
Haig, it must be recalled, had
been warned repeatedly by Lloyd George and Robertson that he must not exhaust
his army; his misleading response had been that he would conform his strategy to
the manpower available.
When criticized by Churchill after the war, Haig attempted to justify his actions
by claiming that Pétain constantly pressed him to continue his attacks to keep the
pressure off his war-weary forces.
93
This is nonsense. Haig kept meticulous
records and there is no mention in his diary or anywhere else of Pétain ever making
such a request. To the contrary, when Pétain talked with Haig at Amiens on
October 18, the Frenchman’s s suggestion to counter any movement of German
divisions from East to West was for the field marshal to take over more of the
French line rather than continue his offensive, which would delay any extension
of the British front. Haig was convinced that the Germans posed no real threat to
the French, for the German divisions were “not fit to take the offensive.” Moreover,
he did not think it possible for the Germans to transfer divisions from the eastern
front in time to strike at the French in 1917.
94
Haig’s true motives are revealed in
a paper to Robertson, dated October 8, which was circulated to the War Cabinet.
This paper shows that Haig, given a misleading picture of German strength by
Charteris, remained convinced that there was a chance that he could gain decisive
results in 1917. If not in 1917, he was certain that his forces in Flanders (if kept
up to strength!) would destroy the enemy in 1918 even if Russia made peace.
95
Haig’s paper claimed that since April he had defeated seventy-seven German
divisions, some of them more than once. The War Office, which surely knew better
than to accept the optimistic arithmetic of Charteris, went along with these inflated
estimates, arguing in mid-October that Haig had exhausted forty-eight German
divisions since the beginning of the Third Battle of Ypres. Maurice even told the
War Cabinet that up to October 5 British casualties were about 100,000 fewer than
German (148, 470 to 255,000).
96
To be sure, Haig’s stubborn assaults in Ypres
had done considerable damage to the German army, with Ludendorff admitting:
“Our wastage had been so high as to cause grave misgivings, and had exceeded
all expectations.”
97
Despite Ludendorff’s s testimony, however, there is no reason
to believe that the British army had inflicted more lasting damage upon the enemy
than it had suffered itself. Furthermore, with many divisions to call upon in the
eastern theater, the German army was hardly at the breaking point.
On October 10, with its military advisers absent, the War Cabinet discussed
future military policy, including French participation in an attack on Turkey.
Haig’s paper on October 8 held center stage.
The view was freely expressed that Field Marshal Haig’s memorandum of
October 8, O.A.D. 652, did not provide a convincing argument that we could
inflict a decisive military defeat on Germany on the West front next year,
even if Russia was still able to retain the same number of German troops on
LLOYD GEORGE AND THE GENERALS 201