right over Asia…. We have to draw a line from the Persian Gulf to the Trans-
Siberian—nearer west or further east as best we can.”
9
Balfour was no less
concerned and raised the prospect that the Germans might eventually reach Baku,
utilizing it as a base to spread their influence to Central Asia and Afghanistan.
10
Wilson advocated a mixed bag of moves as a counterpoise to the TurkoGerman
threat to southwestern Asia: Japanese intervention in Siberia, continued pressure
in Palestine, an advance from Baghdad into northwestern Persia with the ultimate
objective of entering the Caucasus, and the dispatch of military missions from
India to Turkestan to counter German agents and propaganda. Unless his
suggestions were immediately implemented, he warned, “we run a grave risk of
permitting the Germans to establish themselves in a position which will eventually
lead to the downfall of our Eastern Empire.” Only Wilson’s view that Germany
would not send an army to that part of the world “for some time to come” offered
the civilians any comfort.
11
To Milner and other ministers, the emerging threat to Britain’s Asian position
seemed to justify Lloyd George’s passionate interest in peripheral operations.
“How right was the instinct, wh. led you all along to attach so much importance
to the Eastern campaigns & not to listen to our only strategists, who could see
nothing but the Western front,” Milner wrote the Prime Minister. “If it were not
for the position we have won in Mesopotamia & Palestine & the great strength
we have developed on that side, the outlook would be black indeed. As it is, the
position is very serious, but we hold strong cards, if only we play them….”
12
Milner penned his letter to Lloyd George only hours before the German barrage
began to signal the beginning of the titanic German effort to win the war in France
before America could make her presence felt in Europe. In retrospect, the
government’s obsession in March with creating, in Amery’s words, “a barrier
against the sphere of German power which will sufficiently cover the Suez Canal,
Persian Gulf and the frontiers of India in the military sense,”
13
as Germany noisily
massed men and equipment in front of Haig, makes curious reading. But it must
be noted that even Haig, who rarely looked beyond his own trenches, was, in
Milner’s opinion, “quite full of this subject [German threat to Persia]! I never saw
him so interested.”
14
Moreover, Haig was confident that he could “smash” any
German assault and seemed more concerned about the possibility that the enemy
would not attack.
15
In part, the relative calm with which the civilians viewed the massive German
buildup in the British sector—by mid-March the general staff reported that
Germany had ninety-two divisions in a position to strike at Haig’s fifty-seven
divisions—was due to Wilson’s appreciation of the military situation. According
to Wilson, the Allies still enjoyed an overall superiority in rifle strength of 1,500,
000 to 1,370,000 men. More importantly, Wilson, who believed that the Germans
would only “threaten” in the West and then “fall” on Italy in May or June,
encouraged the ministers to believe that Germany was not prepared to stake her
last man in an all-out battle in the West. This led to some loose thinking. Perhaps,
it was hopefully noted in the War Cabinet, the Germans only planned “to depress
280 THE GERMAN OFFENSIVE AND THE MAURICE DEBATE