Kissinger Henry. White House Years

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couldhaveleanedtowardusbuttakenourprotectionforgranted,andstriven,as

hadotherleaders,topickupwhateverloosechangecouldbefoundby

manipulatingtherivalryofthesuperpowersforshort‐termends.Instead,the

ShahofIranchosefriendshipwiththeUnitedStates.Hehadbeenrestoredtothe

thronein1953byAmericaninfluencewhenaleftistgovernmenthadcomeclose

totopplinghim.Heneverforgotthat;itmayhavebeentherootofhis

extraordinarytrustinAmericanpurposesandAmericangoodwill,andofhis

psychologicaldisintegrationwhenhese nsedthatfriendshipevaporating.On

somelevelsexcessively,evenmorbidly,suspiciousofpossibleattemptsto

diminishhisauthority,heneverthelessretainedanalmostnaivefaithinthe

UnitedStates.BythesametokenhewasunpreparedforanAmericavacillatingin

hishouroftragedy.



TheShahsoughttoshapehiscountry’sdestinyandmakeIranamajor

partnerintheWest.Hebelievedinassumingtheburdenofhisowndefense,at

leasttothepointwherehebalancedthestrengthofhisradicalneighbors,like

Iraq,andwherehewouldforceMoscow,ifiteversoughttosubdueIran,to

launchadirectinvasionofa magnitudethattheUnitedStatescouldnotignore.

Andhetriedtoearnoursupportnotonlybytakingseriouslythedefenseofhis

country—whichwas,afterall,ofcrucialstrategicim portance—butalsoby

displayinghisfriendshiptousattimeswhenhemightwellhavestoodaside.



UndertheShah’sleadership,thelandbridgebetweenAsiaandEurope,so

oftenthehingeofworldhistory,waspro‐Americanandpro‐Westbeyondany

challenge.Aloneamongthecountriesoftheregion—Israelaside—Iranmade

friendshipwiththeUnitedStatesthestartingpointofitsforeignpolicy.Thatit

wasbasedonacold‐eyedasse ssmentthatathreattoIranwouldmostlikely

comefromtheSovietUnion,incombination withradicalArabstates,isonly

anotherwayofsayingthattheShah’sviewoftherealitiesofworldpolitics

paralleledourown.Iran’sinfluencewasalwaysonourside;itsresources

reinforcedourseveninsomedistantenterprises—inaidingSouthVietnamatthe

timeofthe1973ParisAgreement,helpingWesternEuropeinitseconomiccrisis

inthe1970s,supportingmoderatesinAfricaagainstSoviet‐Cubanencroachment,

supportingPresidentSadatinthelaterMiddleEastdiplomacy.Inthe1973Middle

Eastwar,forexample,IranwastheonlycountryborderingtheSovietUnionnot

topermittheSovietsuseofitsairspace—incontrastto severalNATOallies.The

ShahabsorbedtheenergiesofradicalArabneighborstopreventthemfrom

threateningthemoderateregimesinSaudiArabia,Jordan,andthePersianGulf.

Herefueledourfleetswithoutquestion.Heneverusedhiscontrolofoiltobring

politicalpressure;heneverjoinedanyoilembargoagainsttheWestorIsrael.[

He

sought,ofcourse,thebestpossiblepriceforhisoil,andwaspartlyresponsibleforthesevere

OPECpriceriseof1973.Butseveralthingsmustbesaid:Whenherealizedthedamagedoneto

theWestbythisaction,hehelpedkeepthepricestableforthenextfiveyears.Infact,thereal

priceofoildeclinedby15percentfrom1973to1978.Hismotivefortheoriginalpricerisewas

notpoliticalbuteconomic;unlikesomeothercountries,hewantedthemaximumrevenuesfor

thedevelopmentofhiscountry.Andheneversoughttomanipulatetheoilpricebyrestricting

hisproduction;healwayskepthisoilproductionatmaximumcapacity,thuspermittingthelaw

ofsupplyanddemandtooperateinfavorofstableprices.]IranundertheShah,inshort,

wasoneofAmerica’sbest,mostimportant,andmostloyalfriendsintheworld.

Theleastweowehimisnotretrospectivelytovilifytheactionsthateight

AmericanPresidents—includingthepresentincumbent—gratefullywelcomed.



Thus,onourarrivalinTehraninMay1972,allofusfeltalmostaphysical

senseofrelief.HoweverfriendlythereceptionhadbeeninMoscowandhowev er

successfultheUS‐Sovietsummit,therehungoverourSovietvisitthatmiasmaof

totalitarianismwhichinvariablydepressesthevisitor,thatheavyuniformitywhich

warnsthehumanspiritofthefuturethatawaitsitiffreepeopleslose faithin

theirlibertiesandceasedefendingtheirvaluesandinstitutions.InTehran,the

warmgoodwillwastangible.



Thevisit,thoughhumanlyengaging,wasnotwithoutitsawkward

moments.NixonwasindeedliketheShahinhiswithdrawnshyness.TheShah

tenderedthePresidentalavishwhite‐tiedinner.AtitsconclusionNixonhadto

improvisea toastbecausetheglareofthetelevisionlightsblindedhimandvanity

preventedhimfromwearingglasseswhenhewasbeingtelevised.Thetoastwent

alongwellenoughbutNixondidnotquiteknowhowtoconcludeit.Threetimes

hecametowhatcouldhaveservedasanexcellentstoppingpoint,butdecidedto

goaroundthetrackagain.Onthefourthattempthethoughthehadhitupona

felicitousconclusion:HequotedanobservationofPresidentEisenhowerthat,

whatevertheirdifferences,onethingallsuccessfulpoliticalleadersseemedto

haveincommonwas“theabilitytomarryabovethemselves.”Hethenproposed

atoasttotheShahand“tohislovelyEmpress,whohasbeenbyhisside…”The

KingofKingslookedoffintothedistancewithmelancholy.



ButeventhoughNixonwasexhaustedbyhisexertionsintheSovietUnion

andtherewaslittletimeinTehranforadeeperdialogue,theconversations

betweentheShahandNixonwerethoseofcloseallies.ThedisasterfortheWest

thathasaccompaniedtheShah’sdownfallhasledtoafeverishquesttofindsome

waytoblameRichardNixonforeventsthatoccurredsevenyearslater.Nixon’s

1972visithasretroactivelybeenmadeascapegoat;itwasblamedforinducing

overconfidenceinanEmperorwhohadalreadybeeninpowerforthirtyyears,

supportedbyseveralAmericanadministrationsofbothparties.[

Theaccusationsare

madewithacertaindefensiveness,whichsuggeststomethatthecrucialquestionremains:

Wasitwrongtosupportoneofourmostvaluablealliesin1972,orwasitwrongtofailto

supporthimeffectivelyin1978and1979?

]



Itisnotobvious,ofcourse,thatself‐assuranceinanallyisabadthing.Nor

wasthishowtheproblemappearedin1972.Therealissuein1972wasthatthe

requiredbalancewithinanareaessentialforthesecurity,andevenmorethe

prosperity,ofallindustrialdemocraciesappearedingravejeopardy.Morethan

15,000SoviettroopswerestillinEgypt,withwhichwehadasyetnodiplomatic

relationsandwhichwastiedtotheSovietUnionbyaFriendshipTreatysigneda

yearearlier.Justsevenweeksbefore,onApril9,theSovietUnionhadconcluded

asimilarFriendshipTreatywithIraq,followedbymassivedeliveriesofthemost

advancedmodernweapons.Syriahadlongsincebeena majorrecipientofSoviet

arms—andhadinvadedmoderateJordantwentymonthsea rlier. Britainatthe

endof1971hadjustcompletedthehistoricwithdrawalofitsforcesandmilitary

protectionfromthePersianGulfattheprecisemomentwhenradicalIraqwas

beingputintoaposit ionbySovietarmstoasserttraditionalhegemonicaims.Our

friends—SaudiArabia,Jordan,theEmirates—werebeingencircled.



ItwasimperativeforourinterestsandthoseoftheWesternworldthatthe

regionalbalanceofpowerbemaintainedsothatmoderateforceswouldnotbe

engulfednorEurope’sandJapan’s(andasitlaterturnedout,our)economic

lifelinefallintohostilehands.Wecouldeitherpro videthebalancingforce

ourselvesorenablearegionalpowertodoso.Therewasnopossibilityof

assigninganyAmericanmilitaryforcestotheIndianOceaninthemidstofthe

Vietnamwaranditsattendanttrauma.Congresswouldhavetoleratednosuch

commitment;thepublicwouldnothavesupportedit.Fortunately,Iranwas

willingtoplaythisrole.ThevacuumleftbyBritishwithdrawal,nowmenacedby

Sovietintrusionandradicalmomentum,wouldbefilledbyalocalpowerfriendly

tous.IraqwouldbediscouragedfromadventuresagainsttheEmiratesinthe

lowerGulf,andagainstJordanandSaudi Arabia.AstrongIrancouldhelpdamp

India’stemptationstoconcludeitsconquestofPakistan.Andallofthiswas

achievablewithoutanyAmeric anresources,sincetheShahwaswillingtopayfor

theequipmentoutofhisoilrevenues.TohavefailedtomatchtheinfluxofSoviet

armsintoneighboringcountrieswouldhaveacceleratedthedemoralizationof

moderateforcesintheMiddleEastandspeededuptheradicalizationofthearea,

includingIran’s.Idaresaythatitmighthavepreventedormadefarmoredifficult

Sadat’slaterturntowardtheWest.



ThespecificdecisionfacingNixonwastheShah’swishforF‐14orF‐15

aircraftandassociatedequipment.Therehadbeenopposition:someDefense

DepartmentreluctancetopartwithadvancedtechnologyandStateDepartment

fearsthatthesalemightbeprovocative.TheShah’salternativewastopurchase

theslightlylessadvancedFrenchMirageplane.Nixonoverrodetheobjections

andaddedaprovisothatinthefutureIranianreque stsshouldnotbesecond‐

guessed.Tocallthisan“open‐ended”commitmentishyperbole,consideringthe

readinessandskillwithwhichourbureaucracyiscapableofemasculating

directivesitisreluctanttoimplement—aqualityrepeatedlydemonstratedinthe

NixonAdministration(asduringtheIndia‐Pakistancrisis)andsooncompounded

bytheerosionofNixon’sauthorityasaresultofWatergate.Laterdecisionswere

shapedlessbyNixon’sdirectivethanbythejudgmentofourgovernmentasthey

cameup.DuringtheFordAdministration,forexample,SecretaryofDefense

JamesSchlesingerhadaseniorofficialassignedtotheShahforliaisonandfor

vettingarmsrequests.Hisconclusionobviouslywasnotaffectedbyadirective

fromNixonbythenovertwoyearsold.Hereachedthesamejudgmentformuch

thesamereasonasNixonhadin1972.Subsequently,armscontinuedtobesold

insubstantialquantitiesbecauseofthejudgmentofallseniorofficials—andof

oursuccessors—thattheywereneededforthebalanceofpowerandthatIran

wasavitalallycarryingburdenswhichotherwisewewouldhavehadtoassume.

Nothinghasoccurredtochangethisjudgmentintheinterval.



NixonagreedalsotoencouragetheShahinsupporting theautonomyof

theKurdsinIraq.TheKurdishaffairanditstragicoutcomeinthe1973‐1975

periodare,ofcourse,outsidethescopeofthisvolume.Theexcitedpolemics

publishedonthissubjecthaveneglectedtomentionthattheywerewritten

withoutanyevidenceofWhiteHousedecisionsandreasoning.Ishallexplain

theseinasecondvolume.[

Sufficeitheretomention,first,thatthedecisiontodiscourage

theKurdsfromlaunchingadiversionaryoffensiveduringtheOctober1973warwasbasedon

theunanimousviewofourintelligenceofficialsandtheShahthattheKurdswouldbedefeated

insuchanoffensive;thisjudgmentwasconcurredinbytheIsraeligovernment.TheShah’s

decisionin1975tosettletheKurdishproblemwithIraqwasbasedonthejudgment,almost

certainlycorrect,thattheKurdswereabouttobeoverwhelmed;theycouldnothavebeen

savedwithouttheinterventionoftwoIraniandivisionsand$300millioninassistancefromus.

TheShahwasnotwillingtocommittheformer;thiswashissovereigndecisiontomake.To

imaginethatCongresswouldhaveappropriatedthelattersuminthemonththatVietnamwas

collapsingwouldbefatuous.Ifwehadsoughtthisescalationofourcovertintelligence

operation,manyofthoselatermourningtheKurds’tragicfatewouldhaveprobablyledthe

chargeagainstit.]In1972,inanycase,thiswasallinthefuture.Thebenefitof

Nixon’sKurdishdecisionwasapparentinjustoverayear:OnlyoneIraqidivision

wasavailabletoparticipate intheOctober1973MiddleEastwar.



ThevisittoTehranthusmarkedanimportantstepinmaintainingthe

balanceofpowerintheMiddleEast.OurfriendshipwithIranserveduswellinthe

crisessoontodescendonus.Thegeopoliticalimportanceofthatcountrymust

impelanyadministrationintoseekinggoodrelationswithwhatevergroup

governsIran.Butthisimperativeneednotbepursuedbyignoringthosewho

wereourfriendsintheirtravail.Itcannotbeinourcountry’sinteresttoindulgein

pettyandretrospectivedenigrationofassociatesofagenerationortoshow 

insensitivitytotheirhumanneedsintheirhouroftravail.Wewerewillingenough

tohavetheShahcooperatewithusasfriendandallyforthirty‐sevenyears;we

impressnoonebycondemninghimnow.Wecannotalwaysassurethefutureof

ourfriends;wehaveabetterchanceofassuringourfutureifwerememberwho

ourfriendsare.



<<Contents>>



****



ReturnthroughWarsaw



T

heCommunistworldwouldnotletgoofNixonsoeasily.Onthewayhome

fromIranhestoppedinPoland,thelargestandmostpopulousoftheSoviet‐

dominatedstatesofEasternEurope.WhatdrewNixontherewasacombination

ofnostalgia,domesticpolitics,andforeignpolicy.Nixonwasnostalgicabout

Polandbecausein1959ithadgivenhimatumultuous welcomewhenhevisited

asVicePresident;heneverforgottherareoccasionsinhislifewhenhehad

evokedspontaneousenthusiasm.Ifanythinglikeitcouldberepeatedina

Presidentialelectionyear,itwouldsurelynotbeoverlookedbymillionsofPolish‐

Americanvoters.Andfinally,itwasourpolicytoencouragesentimentsof

nationalindependenceinEasternEurope. ThatgoalhadtakenustoBucharestin

1969andtoBelgradein1970.ItbroughtustoWarsawin1972.



ThereisnocountryinEuropeinwhichtheaspirationtonational

independenceissoinseparablefromitshistory.Poland’spasthasbeenas

gloriousasithasbeentragic,asinspiringasitssufferinghasbeenimmense.

Rarelyhaveapeoplecombinedsuchexalteddedicationtolibertywithsucha

fiercerefusaltosubordinatethemselvestoforeignauthority,withsuchaquixotic

willingnesscontinuallytohazardtheirfreedominpursuitofaromanticvisionof

freedom.LocatedinthesameplainwithoutnaturalboundariesasRussiabut

withoutthebufferaffordedbyRussia’svastspaces,Polandhasbeendrawninto

themaelstromofallcontendingforcesinEuropeandexposedtoperiodic

pressuresfrombothEastandWest.Itsveryborderstestifytothefluctuationsof

historicalfortune;Polandhasbeenmovedaroundonthemapalmostlikeachair

inaroom;ithasbeenshiftedWestwardorEastwardwiththehistoricaltides.As

recentlyas1945PolandwasineffectmovedWestwardby150miles;Russiatook

Poland’sEasternprovincesandPolandwascompensatedbythegiftofGermany’s

Easternprovinces.Thisextraordinaryrearrangement,mortgagingPoland’sfuture

inbothdirections,wasdonebyadecisionofthevictorio uspowersinwhichPoles

didnotparticipate.



Fornearly150years,fromthelateeighteenthcenturyuntiltheendof

WorldWarI,thestateofPoland,onceoneofthemostimportantinEurope,

disappearedfromthemapofEuropealtogether;Polandwaspartitionedby

Prussia,Austria,andRussia.Butinoneofthemostextraordinaryfeatsofnational

faith,Polandremainedengravedintheheartsofitspeopleevenastheywere

dividedamongneighboringstates.Indeed,inkeepingwiththenation’swildly

romanticandindividualistic character,Poland’scontributiontothelibertyof

Europeincreasedduringtheyearsofitsnationaloppression.Intheeighteenth

andnineteenthcenturiesPolishpatriotswereseize dwiththeheroicandmoving

notionthattheycouldrestorefreedomtotheirpeopleonlybyenhancing

freedomeverywhere.Therewasnowarfornationalindependence—including

America’s—thatwasnotennobledbytheparticipationofPolishvolunt eerswho,

inriskingtheirlivesfortheprincipleofindependenceoffarawaycountries,

believedtheywerevindicatingtherighttofreedomoftheirown.



FaithinthenationwasbuttressedinthatheroiccountrybyfaithinGod.

PolandwastheEasternoutpostoftheCatholicChurch,whosepriestsbecameat

thesametimetherepresentativesofthespiritofanatio nwhoseoppressorsin

themainprofessedadifferentreligion.TheChurchinPolandwasarallyingpoint

fornationalsentimentasnowhereelse.Nocountryhadsufferedmoreinthe

SecondWorldWarthanPoland,whosepoliticalandintellectualvitalityseemedto

inspiresuchterrorinitsneighbors thatitsleaderswerebeingsystematically

liquidatednowbytheGermans,nowbytheSoviets.TheNazisorderedthe

murderofmillionsofwhatthey consideredPoland’selite.Stalinhadexecuted

severalhundredofthePolishofficercorpsintheKatynForestduringthetimeof

theMolotov‐RibbentropPact.TheRedArmyhadstoodidlybyacrosstheVistula

RiverwhiletheGermanssuppressedtheWarsawrevoltof1944,calculatingthat

PolishpatriotswereboundtobeanobstacletoSovietpostwarplans.Andso

PolandemergedfromWorldWarIIwithunfamiliarbounda riesbothintheEast

andtheWest,withanalienregimeimposeduponit,andwithSoviettroops

stationedseeminglypermanentlyinthecountry.AndyetevenitsCommunist

rulers,putintopowerbyforeignarms,couldsustain themselvesonlybyenlarging

themarginofnationaldecisiontothemaximumextent.Grudgingly,the

CommunistsuperstructurewasforcedintoanaccommodationwiththeCatholic

Church,whichexactedalargemeasureofspiritualautonomy,inreturn

performingitshistoricroleofsymbolizingthatsomevirtuesarebeyondthereach

ofpoliticaldecisions.Uprisingsin1956and1970warnedthatthePolishspirit

couldbequelledonlybyamassivedisplayofmilitarypowerfromwhichthe

SovietUnionrecoiledonbothoccasions.



ThefiercedevotiontoPolishidentitywasreflectedintherebuildingofthe

beautifuloldcityofWarsaw.Sopowerfulwasthenationaltraditionthateventhe

CommunistrulersinheritingtheheapofrubblethathadoncebeenWarsaw(90

percentdestroyed)begantheirtaskofreconstructionbyrebuildingthecityof

Poland’spast:Sixteenth‐centuryWarsawroselovinglyre‐createdfromancient

plansbeforetheCommunistsdaredtoimposetheirowngingerbreadStalinist

Gothicontheirsubjects.



Polandneededfromusnolecturesontheimportanceoffreedom.Allit

requiredwasthepsychological assurancethatitsaspirationswereunderstoodby

oldfriends.Andthereforeourprese nceinWarsawwasmoreimportantthanthe

substanceoftheconversations.



Wearrivedattheairporttoahorrendousfoul‐up.Aspartofthearrival

ceremony,agaudyPolisharmymarchingbandhadbegunitsdrillatthefarendof

theairporttarmacandwasheadingtowardthereviewingstandinanintricate

spit‐and‐polishmaneuver.Theceremonymusthavebeenrehearsedmanytimes,

butapparentlynotwithanairplanepresent.Asthebandapproachedusit

becamesickeninglyclearthatitwasheadingstraightfortheenginepodsunder

thewingsofAirForceOne;indeed,hadthepilotstartedtheengines,theentire

bandwouldhavebeenblownawayorincinerated.Butthebandprovedequalto

theoccasion.Withoutbreakingstrideorinterruptingthemusic,itexecuteda

sharpninety‐degreeturn,marchedunderthewingsparalleltothefuselage,its

rankspartingaroundtheenginepods,itsmelodyandpersonnelunimpaired.To

provethatroutineishardtobreak,thebanddidnotchangetheprocedureupon

ourdeparture;itfollowedthesamepreciseroute,marchingintotheairplaneand

undertheengines.



Ouradvancemencouldnotpermitsuchingenuitytogounmatched.The 

problemwastheperennialone:howtobringaboutaphotoopportunityinvolving

“spontaneous”crowds.ItwascomplicatedinPolandbecauseourhostsinsisted

thatweusetheircars,thusdeprivingouradvanceteamofcontroloverthe

creationoftrafficjams,whichhadworkedsowellinRomeandBelgradein1970.

Buttheadvancemenwereuptothechallenge.Onthewaytohisresidencefrom

theairport,Nixonstoppedtolayawreath attheTomboftheUnknownSoldier.

Fortunatelyforourpublicrelationsmen’scomposure,inWarsawthisislocatedin

thecenteroftownsothatagood‐sizedcrowdhadassembled.AsNixon

completedthewreath‐laying,thePresident’sAmericanlimousinesuddenlycame

intoviewwithitsregularSecretServicedriver.Nixonentereditbeforeourhosts

couldrecoverfromtheirsurprise.Thedrivermovedthecarslowlyoffthestreet

andontothesidewalk,thatistosay,rightintothecrowd.Eventhemosthostile

photographerfounditimpossibletoavoidapictureofNixon’scarinundatedby

Polishcrowds.Ihadbeengivenanotherlessoninthecreationofphoto

opportunities.



TheconversationswithPolishleaderscouldnotcompetewithsomuch

ingenuity.IwasmuchimpressedwithEdwardGierek,theGeneralSecretaryof

thePolishCommunistParty,whohadcometopowerafterthe1970riots.Hewas

adedicatedCommunistandapatrioticPole.Helefttheimpressionthatan

ideologywhichdestroyedthenationa lcharacterofhispeoplewouldbe

meaninglesstohimandthatintheendhewouldresistifitcametothat.Heknew

thatPolandwouldcommitsuicideifitchallengeditspowerfulneighbortothe

East.AndnoPolecouldtotallyovercomethedistrustofGermanyafterthe

sufferingoftheSecondWorldWar.Gierekwouldmaneuverbetweenthesetwo

nationalnightmares,seekingthegreatestautonomyintheprocess,withoutgiving

uptheCommunistprinciplestowhichhehaddevotedhislife.



Andtherewasnodoubtabouthishappinesswiththeoutcomeofthe

Moscowsummit.Sovietleadersweresurelyambivalentaboutdetente,

undecidedwhethertouseitasanoffensivetactictotranquilizetheWestorto

makeaseriousturntowardmutualrestraint.Gierekhadnosuchambivalence.He

wantedacodeofinternational conductinwhichthestrongwererestrainedfrom

imposingtheirwillontheweak.Poland’sautonomycouldthrivebestunder

conditionsofrelaxationoftension.Confrontatio ninvolvedregimentation;peace

wasnotonlyanabstractpreferencebutaconditionofnationalsurvival.Andso

thestopinWarsawremindedusofsomefundamentalsthatultimatelymake

statesmanshipworthwhile.



<<Contents>>



****



TheSovietGrainDeal



TmustbeconcededthatinonerespecttheSovietUnionplayedacoolhand

andoutwittedusatthesummit.ThisinvolveditspurchaseofAmericangraina

fewweekslater.



EveryPresidentsinceKennedyhadconsideredthatitwouldbeamajor

politicalsuccesstodemonstratethesuperiorityofoursystembysellingtheSoviet

Unionthegrainitcouldnotgrowforitself.Fora whileourlaborunionshad

preventedsuchsalesbyrefusingtoloadSovietshipsandbyrequiringshipmentin

Americanbottoms,whichwerefartooexpensivefortheSoviets.Butthoseissues

wereresolvedsoonafterthesummit.NothingnowstoodinthewayexceptSoviet

willingnesstobuy.Fundamentally,theSovietpurchaseofgraininourmarkets

wasseenasadomesticmatter,anelementofouragriculturalpolicy;theNSC

staffwaskeptinformedonlyingeneralterms.Furthermore,nobodyfamiliarwith

SecretaryofAgricultureEarlButz’sprotectiveattitudetowardtheagricultural

communitywouldbelieveforonemomentthathewouldacceptforeignpolicy

directivesgracefully.ButzwastheequalofMelLairdinbureaucraticmaneuvering

andevenmoredeadlybecauseherepre sentedasingle‐mindedconstituency.



WhenButzvisitedMoscowinApril1972,hewastoldthattheSovietUnion

mightconsiderathree‐yearagreementtopurchasegrain,providedadequate

creditswereavailable.ByJune,Butzhadcomeupwithaformulaforsubsidized

credit.DuringthesummitNixonhadcommentedseveraltimestoBrezhnevand

Kosyginaboutthebeneficialimpactofgrainsalesonourpublicopinion,butthe

Sovietleadershadfeignedlittleinterest.KosygintoldRogersthatasaspecial

favortheSovietsmightbuy$150million.IadvisedNixonthatthissumwastoo

insignificanttomeritinclusioninthesummitcommuniqué.



AfterwereturnedhomeSovietinterestsuddenlypickedup.Weknownow,

butdidnotthen,thatin1972theSovietswereconfrontingacatastrophiccrop

failure;theirneedforAmericangrainwascritical.Noreportaccuratelypointingto

thescaleoftheSovietfailurereachedtheWhiteHousethenoruntillongafter

theunprecedentedlymassivepurchasesofthatcropyearhadbeencompleted.

Wemighthave suspectedthatsomethingwaswrong;theSovietsabandoned

theirusualhagglingtacticsandmovedthenegotiationsforwardonthegrainissue

afterthesummitonanexpertlevelwithoutpolemicsorpublicity.Inretrospect

weshouldhaveguessedperhapsthatMoscowwantedtoavoidbothpolitical

scrutinyandtherisksofdrivinguppricesinthegrainmarketifthescaleoftheir

cropfailurebecameknown.BythelastweekofJuneaDeputyMinisterfromthe

SovietAgricultureMinistryhadslippedquietlyintoWashington.Petersonand

Butzquicklyworkedoutwithhimathree‐yeararrangementinvolving$750

millionincredits.TheextentofourignoranceisshownbyaconversationIhad

thenwithPeterson,whowaspleasantlysurprisedthattheSovietsseemedtobe

consideringapurchaseof“upto$500million”worthofgrainduringthefirstyear.

