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12.4
Probability: Predicting
the Results of Crosses
Learning Outcomes
Understand the rule of addition and the rule of 1.
multiplication.
Apply the rules of probability to genetic crosses.2.
Probability allows us to predict the likelihood of the outcome
of random events. Because the behavior of different chromo-
somes during meiosis is independent, we can use probability to
predict the outcome of crosses. The probability of an event that
is certain to happen is equal to 1. In contrast, an event that can
never happen has a probability of 0. Therefore, probabilities for
all other events have fractional values, between 0 and 1. For
instance, when you flip a coin, two outcomes are possible; there
is only one way to get the event “heads” so the probability of
heads is one divided by two, or ½. In the case of genetics, con-
sider a pea plant heterozygous for the flower color alleles P and
p. This individual can produce two types of gametes in equal
numbers, again due to the behavior of chromosomes during
meiosis. There is one way to get a P gamete, so the probability
of any particular gamete carrying a P allele is 1 divided by 2 or
½, just like the coin toss.
Two probability rules help predict
monohybrid cross results
We can use probability to make predictions about the outcome
of genetic crosses using only two simple rules. Before we de-
scribe these rules and their uses, we need another definition. We
say that two events are mutually exclusive if both cannot happen
at the same time. The heads and tails of a coin flip are examples
of mutually exclusive events. Notice that this is different from
two consecutive coin flips where you can get two heads or two
tails. In this case, each coin flip represents an independent event.
It is the distinction between independent and mutually exclusive
events that forms the basis for our two rules.
The rule of addition
Consider a six-sided die instead of a coin: for any roll of the die,
only one outcome is possible, and each of the possible outcomes
are mutually exclusive. The probability of any particular num-
ber coming up is . The probability of either of two different
numbers is the sum of the individual probabilities, or restated
as the rule of addition:
For two mutually exclusive events, the probability of either
event occurring is the sum of the individual probabilities.
Probability of rolling either a 2 or a 6
is =
1
/
6
+
1
/
6
=
2
/
6
=
1
/
3
To apply this to our cross of heterozygous purple F
1
, four mu-
tually exclusive outcomes are possible: PP, Pp, pP, and pp. The
probability of being heterozygous is the same as the probability
of being either Pp or pP, or ¼ plus ¼, or ½.
Probability of F
2
heterozygote = ¼Pp + ¼pP = ½
In the previous example, of 379 total offspring, we would ex-
pect about 190 to be heterozygotes. (The actual number is 189.5.)
The rule of multiplication
The second rule, and by far the most useful for genetics, deals
with the outcome of independent events. This is called the
product rule, or rule of multiplication, and it states that
the probability of two independent events both occurring is
the product of their individual probabilities.
We can apply this to a monohybrid cross in which off-
spring are formed by gametes from each of two parents. For
any particular outcome then, this is due to two independent
events: the formation of two different gametes. Consider the
purple F
1
parents from earlier. They are all Pp (heterozygotes),
so the probability that a particular F
2
individual will be pp (ho-
mozygous recessive) is the probability of receiving a p gamete
from the male (½) times the probability of receiving a p gamete
from the female (½), or ¼:
Probability of pp homozygote = ½p (male parent) × ½p
(female parent) = ¼pp
This is actually the basis for the Punnett square that we
used before. Each cell in the square was the product of the
probabilities of the gametes that contribute to the cell. We then
use the addition rule to sum the probabilities of the mutually
exclusive events that make up each cell.
We can use the result of a probability calculation to pre-
dict the number of homozygous recessive offspring in a cross
between heterozygotes. For example, out of 379 total offspring,
we would expect about 95 to exhibit the homozygous recessive
phenotype. (The actual calculated number is 94.75.)
Dihybrid cross probabilities are based
on monohybrid cross probabilities
Probability analysis can be extended to the dihybrid case. For
our purple F
1
by F
1
cross, there are four possible outcomes,
three of which show the dominant phenotype. Thus the prob-
ability of any offspring showing the dominant phenotype is ¾,
and the probability of any offspring showing the recessive phe-
notype is ¼. Now we can use this and the product rule to pre-
dict the outcome of a dihybrid cross. We will use our example
of seed shape and color from earlier, but now examine it using
probability.
If the alleles affecting seed shape and seed color segregate
independently, then the probability that a particular pair of al-
leles for seed shape would occur together with a particular pair of
alleles for seed color is the product of the individual probabilities
for each pair. For example, the probability that an individual with
wrinkled green seeds (rr yy) would appear in the F
2
generation
would be equal to the probability of obtaining wrinkled seeds
(¼) times the probability of obtaining green seeds (¼), or
16
.
Probability of rr yy = ¼ rr × ¼ yy =
16
rr yy
230
part
III
Genetic and Molecular Biology
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