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MHDQ256-Ch07 MHDQ256-Smith-v1.cls December 23, 2010 21:26
LT (Late Transcendental)
CONFIRMING PAGES
486 CHAPTER 7
..
Integration Techniques 7-66
APPLICATIONS
35. In one version of the game of keno, you choose 10 numbers
between 1 and 80. A random drawing selects 20 numbers be-
tween 1 and 80. Your payoff depends on how many of your
numbers are selected. Use the given probabilities (rounded to
4 digits) to find the probability of each event indicated below.
(To win, at least 5 of your numbers must be selected. On a
$2 bet, you win $40 or more if 6 or more of your numbers are
selected.)
Number selected 0 1 2 3 4
Probability 0.0458 0.1796 0.2953 0.2674 0.1473
Number selected 5 6 7 8 9 10
Probability 0.0514 0.0115 0.0016 0.0001 0.0 0.0
(a) winning (at least 5 selected)
(b) losing (4 or fewer selected)
(c) winning big (6 or more)
(d) 3 or 4 numbers selected
36. Suppose a basketball player makes 70% of her free throws.
If she shoots three free throws and the probability of making
each one is 0.7, the probabilities for the total number made
are as shown. Find the probability of each event indicated
below.
Number made 0 1 2 3
Probability 0.027 0.189 0.441 0.343
(a) She makes 2 or 3 (b) She makes at least 1
37. (a) Suppose that a game player has won m games out of n,
with a winning percentage of 100
m
n
< 75. The player then
wins severalgames in a row, so that the winning percentage
exceeds 75%. Show that at some point in this process the
player’s winning percentage is exactly 75%.
(b) Generalize to any winning percentage that can be written
as 100
k
k + 1
, for some integer k.
38. In example 8.5, we found the median (also called the sec-
ond quartile). Now find the first and third quartiles, the ages
such that the probability of being younger are 0.25 and 0.75,
respectively.
39. Thepdfinexample8.2is the pdf foranormally distributedran-
dom variable. The mean is easily read off from f (x); in exam-
ple 8.2, the mean is 68. The mean and a number called
the standard deviation characterize normal distributions. As
Figure7.31indicates,thegraphofthepdfhasamaximumatthe
mean and has two inflection points located on opposite sides
of the mean. The standard deviation equals the distance from
the mean to an inflection point. Find the standard deviation in
example 8.2.
40. In exercise 39, you found the standard deviation for the pdf
in example 8.2. Denoting the mean as μ and the standard
deviation as σ , find the probability that a given height is
between μ − σ and μ + σ (that is, within one standard de-
viation of the mean). Find the probability that a given height
is within two standard deviations of the mean (μ − 2σ to
μ + 2σ ) and within three standard deviations of the mean.
These probabilities are the same for any normal distribution.
So, if you know the mean andstandard deviation of a normally
distributed random variable, you automatically know these
probabilities.
41. Iftheprobabilityofaneventis p, theprobabilitythatitwillhap-
pen m times in n tries is f (p) =
n!
m!(n − m)!
p
m
(1 − p)
n−m
.
Find the value of p that maximizes f (p). This is called the
maximum likelihood estimator of p. Briefly explain why your
answer makes sense.
42. The Buffon needle problem is one of the oldest and most
famous of probability problems. Suppose that a series of hor-
izontal lines are spaced one unit apart and a needle of length
one is placed randomly. What is the probability that the needle
intersects one of the horizontal lines?
1
y
θ
In the figure, y is the distance from the center of the needle to
thenearestline and θ is thepositiveangle that theneedlemakes
with the horizontal. Show that the needle intersects the line if
and only if 0 ≤ y ≤
1
2
sinθ. Since 0 ≤ θ ≤ π and 0 ≤ y ≤
1
2
,
the desired probability is
π
0
1
2
sinθdθ
π
0
1
2
dθ
. Compute this.
43. The Maxwell-Boltzmann pdf for molecular speeds in a gas
at equilibrium is f (x) = ax
2
e
−b
2
x
2
, for positive parame-
ters a and b. Find the most common speed [i.e., find x to
maximize f (x)].
44. The pdf for inter-spike intervals of neurons firing in the
cochlear nucleus of a cat is f (t) = kt
−3/2
e
bt−a/t
, where a =
100, b = 0.38andt ismeasuredinmicroseconds.(See Mackey
and Glass, From Clocks to Chaos.) Use your CAS to find the
value of k that makes f a pdf on the interval [0, 40]. Then find
the probability that neurons fire between 20 and 30 microsec-
onds apart.
45. Suppose that a soccer team has a probability p of scoring the
nextgoalin agame. The probability of a 2-goal game ending in
a 1-1 tie is 2p(1 − p), the probability of a 4-goal game ending
in a 2-2 tie is
4 · 3
2 · 1
p
2
(1 − p)
2
, the probability of a 6-goal game
ending in a 3-3 tie is
6 · 5 · 4
3 · 2 · 1
p
3
(1 − p)
3
and so on. Assume
that an even number of goals is scored. Show that the proba-
bility of a tie is a decreasing function of the number of goals
scored.
46. Two players toss a fair coin until either the sequence HTT or
HHT occurs. Player A wins if HTT occurs first, and player B
wins if HHT occurs first. Show that player B is twice as likely
to win.