surface. What is not so well settled is how much this extra heat energy will increase the
temperature at the surface, called the global warming or greenhouse effect. A variety of
mathematical climate models have been developed which predict an increase of from
1.5
C to 4.5
C, with a mos t likely value of 2.5
C. Besides potentially affecting tempera-
ture, climate, and sea level, the change in CO
2
could directly affect living things by fer-
tilizing plant growth (Section 15.6). Potential ecological effects of global warming are
described in Section 15.6.
Figure 14.5 shows primary productivity to be in equi librium with plant and soil respira-
tion. Fossil-fuel combustion contributes an extra 5:3 10
15
g C/yr. In addition, about
1:0 10
15
g C/yr comes from deforestation. However, only about 2:9 10
15
g C/yr
actually accumulates in the atmosphere. It is thought that the oceans absor b about
2:2 10
15
g C/yr of the industrial contribution, about 42%. This leaves 1:2 10
15
g C/yr
unaccounted for, called ‘‘unknown sinks.’’ It must be emphasized that global fluxes are
difficult to measure. There is uncertainty whether terrestrial plants are increasing their
removal of CO
2
from the atmosphere as its concentration increases, or whether such an
effect is counterbalanced by human deforestation.
Atmospheric carbon is also present as carbon monoxide and methane. The turnover
times for these are 0.1 and 3.6 years, respectively, compared to 4 years for CO
2
. Methane
is also a greenhouse gas. Although less important than CO
2
, it is increasing faster, having
already increased from about 700 ppbv (parts per billion by volume) in preindustrial
levels to 1714 ppbv in 1992. Methane has many biogenic sources, including anaerobic
degradation in wetland sediments and bacteria living symbiotically in the gut of termites.
Anthropogenic sources contribute two-and-one-third times the natural sources. About half
the anthropogenic sources are associated with food production, including rice paddies,
biomass burning, and from livestock which belch gases formed by anaerobic bacteria
in their gut. About one-fourth the anthropogenic source is from fossil-fuel use.
Two other greenhouse gases should be mentioned. Halocarbons are synthetic com-
pounds used for refrigeration (e.g., Freon) among other things. They are highly stable,
having half-lives in the atmosphere measured in decades. The most harmful forms have
been banned because of their ability to destroy stratospheric ozone, and levels have
stopped increasing. About two-thirds of the total nitrous oxide (N
2
O) emissions are
anthropogenic, and most of those are from tropical agriculture. N
2
O has increased 13%
over preindustrial levels.
At their current levels, these four gases trap an estimated 2.45 W/m
2
at Earth’s surface.
About 64% of this is due to CO
2
, 19% to methane, 11% to halo carbons, and 6% to nitrous
oxide. An increase in extreme weather events has been noted worldwide. Global tempera-
tures have increased 0.3 to 0.6
C since measurements began in 1856. About half of
that increase has come in the last 40 years, and the years 1990, 1991, 1994, 1995 were
warmer than any of the years that preceded them. There are some who suggest that these
changes may be natural, such as due to changes in solar output. Nevertheless, most scien-
tists who have studied the data agree that these emissions have already produced detect-
able changes in Earth’s climate and that their effects will have serious consequences for
the Earth.
14.2.3 Hydrologic Cycle
The hydrologic or water cycle does not have any major flux components that are biolo-
gical (Figure 14.6). Although water is consumed by photosynthesis and produced by
456 ECOLOGY: THE GLOBAL VIEW OF LIFE